Air cargo tonnages from India to the USA have continued to fall since new tariffs of 50% came into force on 27 August, despite a wider rebound in worldwide and US volumes in the second full week of September.
According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, chargeable weight from India to the USA dropped by a further -8%, week on week (WoW), in week 37 (8 to 14 September) after falling by -12% and -11%, respectively, in the previous two weeks. Those decreases follow a +28% spike in week 34 ahead of the imposition by the USA of new 50% ‘reciprocal’ tariffs from 27 August on goods imported from India.
The latest declines in week 37 take weekly tonnages from India to the USA to -14% below their average of the last three months. In comparison, air cargo volumes from India to Europe rose steadily in weeks 34 to 36, taking them +2% higher than in week 36 last year, although they dipped slightly (-1%, WoW) in week 37.
India to USA air cargo tonnages had generally been up, year on year (YoY), in recent months, in part due to pressure on US importers to seek alternatives to Chinese suppliers. But in the first two weeks of September, under the new tariff regime, India to USA air cargo tonnages have been down compared with the equivalent weeks last year, by -13% and -10%, YoY, respectively. Since around April, India to Europe tonnages have mostly been higher, YoY, although that gap with last year has narrowed somewhat in the last two months.
Within that Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origin region, Dubai has also seen a drop in tonnages to the USA in the last four weeks, with chargeable weight in week 37 down by more than one third (-37%) compared with the average level in July and August. That figure in week 37 may have been negatively affected by the Mawlid holiday, although Dubai to Europe tonnages have proven much more resilient in recent weeks than Dubai to USA volumes, including in week 37, however still at -17%, YoY.
On a worldwide basis, global tonnages bounced back with +2% WoW growth in week 37, with declines from MESA origins (-4%, WoW) more than offset by a +11% WoW rebound from North America origins – following the Labor Day public holiday in the USA on 1 September – and WoW increases from Asia Pacific origins (+2%, WoW).
Following the volatility seen for much of this year, China and Hong Kong to USA markets have settled down in recent weeks. China and Hong Kong to USA tonnages are around -8% below their equivalent level this time last year, with average spot rates of US$4.58 per kilo being around -14% below last year’s equivalent levels. Meanwhile, during the same period, tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe have been consistently higher, by around +8%, with average spot rates of $4.21 per kilo, around -4% below last year’s levels.
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