WorldACD: Q1 2025 up 3% ahead of US tariffs

Worldwide air cargo tonnages grew by +3% year on year (YoY) in the first three months of 2025 with average global rates rising +4%, YoY according to preliminary first-quarter (Q1) figures from WorldACD Market Data. This low single-digit growth in Q1 2025 is very different from the levels seen last year – when growth averaged +11%, YoY, with Q4 still at +8%. It reflects an uncertain market bracing for a disruptive new wave of US tariffs, and the removal of US de minimis exemptions for shipments from China and Hong Kong – and challenges to some of the supply chain models of the last two decades. On a full-month basis, worldwide tonnages rose by +19%, month on month (MoM), in March from their depleted level in February resulting from the usual seasonal factory closures in the weeks following Lunar New Year. Based on the more than 2 million monthly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data, worldwide tonnages in March were up +5%, YoY, with increases from Asia Pacific (+9%), North America (+6%), Africa (+6%), and Central & South America (CSA, +4%), offset by reductions in tonnages from Middle East & South Asia (MESA, -6%) and Europe origins flat (0%). Worldwide flown tonnages in March were back up close to their monthly levels in the second half of 2024, including demand from Asia Pacific origins that was higher than experienced in the peak season months of October and November. Average worldwide rates in March of $2.38 per kilo were +4% higher than the previous month, and up by +2%, YoY. On a weekly basis, spot prices from Asia Pacific origins rose by a further +3%, week on week (WoW), to an average of US$3.80 per kilo in week 13 (24 to 30 March), around +8% higher than the equivalent week last year, despite a -3% drop in tonnages from Asia Pacific. Spot rates from MESA rose by +5%, WoW, to $2.94 per kilo, although that’s -19% below their inflated level this time last year. Worldwide spot rates edged up by a further +2%, WoW, to $2.70 per kilo, while worldwide average overall rates, based on a mix of spot and contract rates, edged up +1% to $2.45 per kilo. That’s +1% higher, year on year (YoY). Despite some reports and expectations of ‘front-loading’ of cargo ahead of anticipated new US tariffs, flown tonnages in week 13 from Asia Pacific to the USA dropped by -3%, WoW, including from China and Hong Kong (both -1%), although Asia Pacific to the USA tonnages were +7% up compared with week 13 last year. Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the USA continued to rise in week 13, regaining a further +6%, WoW, to $5.49 per kilo – their highest level since week 1, and taking them +11% higher, YoY. Those figures included WoW increases from China (+6%, to $4.82), Hong Kong (+10%), and Vietnam (+12%). In comparison, tonnages from Asia Pacific origins to Europe rose by a further +2%, WoW – their seventh successive WoW increase, taking them +16% higher, YoY. Average spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe also regained a further +3%, WoW, to $4.02 per kilo, which is +13% higher, YoY. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Kay Rolland at [email protected]