WorldACD: Air cargo prices keep rising while traffic slows ahead of peak season

Overall pricing rose +2% week on week (WoW) to a global average of $3.45 in week 45 (2 to 8 November), according to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD market data. Adding to the momentum of the previous week, this brought the pricing increase of the combined two weeks over the prior fortnight (2Wo2W) to +4%. At the same time worldwide tonnage slipped by -2%. Tight capacity, exacerbated by shifts of passenger aircraft to sunshine destinations and seasonal maintenance work, nudged up rates. With the exception of a -1% decline out of Europe, pricing climbed week on week (WoW) out of all origin regions, while chargeable weight slipped across the board save for the Middle East & South Asia (MESA), where it remained unchanged from the previous week. Rates climbed fastest WoW out of Africa (+7%), while Asia Pacific origin rates rose +3% followed by Central & South America (CSA) and North America at +2% each and +1% higher prices out of MESA. Compared to Week 45 of 2025 (YoY), pricing was +31% higher overall. It was up across the board, with CSA the only region showing a single-digit increase, while rates out of MESA were up +63%. The other origins showed YoY rate growth between +28% and +36%. Traffic slips before anticipated peak momentum Airline and forwarder executives have predicted a moderate surge in peak season traffic to complement ongoing demand from key sectors like AI-related infrastructure, but this has yet to materialize. Chargeable weight dropped -2% worldwide WoW, led by a -4% decline out of CSA, followed by Africa and Asia Pacific, which registered decline of -3%. Tonnage slipped -2% and -1% respectively out of North America and Europe but was unchanged out of MESA. Volumes were unchanged overall on a 2Wo2W basis, held up by low single-digit growth out of MESA, Asia Pacific and North America that compensated for drops from Europe, CSA and Africa. North America and Asia Pacific show 2Wo2W expansion in their major trade corridors, whereas European exports to North America, Asia Pacific and Africa declined while remaining unchanged to CSA and MESA. In a repeat of the past week capacity was unchanged WoW after a -1% retreat in Week 43. It was flat out of North America, MESA and Africa and sank -1% out of Asia Pacific. Europe and CSA show increases of +1% and +2% respectively, the latter largely a reflection of US passenger airlines shifting widebody aircraft from the transatlantic market to routes into South America. Capacity was affected by operational constraints in Bangkok and Buenos Aires, where work on the main runway caused many carriers to suspend their Argentina service temporarily. Asian exports slow Chargeable weight out of Asia Pacific fell WoW -3% to USA and -1% to Europe. Taiwan’s AI-related exports fuelled +7% growth in volume to USA, whereas transpacific traffic out of all other Asia Pacific origins decreased except out of Singapore and Malaysia, where growth was flat. Year on year eastbound transpacific tonnage was up +13%, again led by exports from Taiwan (+37%), followed by Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia and China with double-digit growth. After two weeks of stable volumes from Asia Pacific to Europe tonnage slipped -1%, driven by contraction out of Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, China and Indonesia. Europe-bound traffic from China declined -2% for a second consecutive week, deteriorating from -6% YoY contraction two weeks earlier to -13% in Week 45. Chargeable weight out of Hong Kong to Europe climbed +2% for a second week but still is down by -32%, YoY, due to the new EU import rules effective since 1 July. Only Malaysia and Singapore show YoY tonnage growth to Europe from the region. Overall chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to Europe has not seen YoY expansion since mid-June. Asia Pacific pricing on the up Despite lower outbound volumes to USA and Europe, WoW pricing to these areas rose +1% and +3% respectively. US-bound rates rose for a fourth consecutive week. They declined in low single-digit percentages from Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore but rose between +1% and +3% from the other Asia Pacific origins. To Europe China led the rate increases (+5%), followed by Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam, while rates from Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia were unchanged. Since Week 35 (August 24 – 30) Asia Pacific pricing to Europe has either grown WoW in low single digits or remained unchanged. Whereas Asia Pacific rates to Europe were up “only” +26% YoY, pricing to USA was +44% higher, reflecting the impact of different demand patterns between both flows. Rate increases to USA from Japan (+70%) and South Korea (+65%) stood out, while pricing out of Hong Kong was up +35% at the low end. To Europe increases ranged from +15% out of China to +57% from Singapore. MESA volumes stable, Saudi Arabia remains lagging due to ongoing hostilities Volume from MESA to Europe remained unchanged from the prior week as WoW growth in tonnages out of Sri Lanka and India was cancelled out by the decline out of Dubai and Bangladesh. The +2% growth out of India suggests at most a mild frontloading effort ahead of the Diwali festival, which fell on November 8 and may affect volume in the following week. Volume from MESA to USA contracted -1% WoW, pulled down by drops of -15% and -3% respectively out of Sri Lanka and India, which cancelled out low single-digit growth out of Dubai and Bangladesh. Pricing from MESA inched up +1% WoW to Europe and +2% to USA. The increase to Europe was driven by a +2% rise in rates out of India, whereas rates slipped from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and were flat out of Dubai. Year on year rates from MESA to Europe were +66% higher, with double-digit increases from all origins led by Dubai (+83%) and India (+70%). The rise in USA-bound pricing from MESA was also driven by India, which shows +3% WoW higher rates. YoY overall pricing from MESA to USA stood +79% higher, led by increases of more than +80% from India and Dubai. Air freight tonnage to and from Saudi Arabia has been affected by the missile attacks of the Houthis on the nation. In the past five weeks, this has reduced chargeable weight there by as much as -30% four weeks ago and -33% this past week from the level of Week 40, which preceded the attacks that started in the week of October 5. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Sally Passey at [email protected]