WorldACD: China to USA spot rates rebound

Average worldwide air cargo rates regained a further +4% in the third full week of March, taking them back to around their levels in mid-January and last summer, as the market ex-Asia Pacific continues to rebuild after Lunar New Year (LNY). According to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data, average worldwide spot rates gained a further +5% to reach US$2.69 per kilo in week 12 (17 to 23 March), with contract rates rising +3% to $2.40 per kilo, taking the full-market average mix of spot and contract rates to $2.45 per kilo. That’s +3% higher than the equivalent week last year. The increases come despite a slight (-1%) week-on-week (WoW) drop in worldwide flown chargeable weight, which remains +3% higher, year on year (YoY). Of the main worldwide origin regions, only Asia Pacific and Africa recorded any WoW tonnage increases (both +1%), taking chargeable weight from Asia Pacific origins +10% higher, YoY. But that apparent growth from Asia Pacific origins may be heightened by the earlier timing of LNY in 2025 – on 29 January, compared with 10 February last year. Most of the world’s main origin regions recorded WoW increases in overall average market rates and spot rates in week 12, including WoW spot rate increases of +13% from Central & South America (CSA), and +5% rises from Asia Pacific origins, to $1.80 per kilo and $3.71 per kilo, respectively. Spot rates from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins also recorded a WoW increase in week 12 of +3%, to $2.81 per kilo, although that’s -17% below the highly elevated levels this time last year, when air cargo tonnages from that region were surging due to the attacks on container shipping in the Red Sea. Tonnages from Asia Pacific markets to the USA increased overall by a further +3% in week 12, their sixth successive WoW increase since LNY, driven by increases from South Korea (+13%), Vietnam (+6%), Hong Kong (+5%) and China (+2%). Spot prices from Asia Pacific to the USA rose +5%, WoW, to $5.16 per kilo, with China to USA prices recording a second consecutive week of double-digit percentage increases (+12%, WoW) taking them to $4.53 per kilo – their second-highest level this year, second only to their level in week 1. However, spot rates from Hong Kong to the USA dropped back by -9% in week 12, but there were substantial increases from Taiwan (+16%), Malaysia (+13%), Vietnam (+10%), and Japan (+7%). Asia Pacific to Europe tonnages also recorded their sixth successive WoW increase since LNY, but at +2% it was also the smallest of those six WoW rises. Tonnages rose from Thailand (+6%), South Korea (+5%), China (+3%) and Hong Kong (+2%), but tonnages ex-Japan dropped by -8%, WoW. Spot prices from Asia Pacific to Europe also gained +2%, led by +6% WoW increases from China, South Korea, and Taiwan. The increase in China to Europe spot rates in week 12 follows four successive weeks of WoW declines and takes China to Europe spot prices to US$4 per kilo, around -5% below their average level in January. MESA to Europe markets, which experienced extremely high demand and pricing for much of last year, appear to have broadly stabilized after some volatility around Ramadan. Tonnages and rates edged up slightly, WoW, in week 12 for the region as a whole, with falling demand from India in weeks 11 and 12 offset by increases from Dubai and Colombo. Average spot rates from MESA to Europe rose +2%, WoW, in week 12, with increases from Dubai (+6%) and India (+4%) outweighing falls in spot prices from Colombo (-3%, WoW). Compared with their highly elevated levels this time last year, spot rates from MESA to Europe in week 12 were down -23%, YoY, mainly driven by reductions from India (-32%) and Bangladesh (-34%, YoY). In contrast, spot prices from Dubai of $1.73 per kilo in week 12 were +14% up, YoY. Spot rates from Bangladesh to Europe of $2.86 per kilo in week 12 have been steady for the last five weeks and at a more normal level for that market – compared with their highly inflated levels throughout much of the second half of 2024, when at times they exceeded $5 per kilo due to disruptions to air cargo and sea freight capacity linked to domestic political upheavals. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Kay Rolland at [email protected]