WorldACD: China-Europe cargo traffic stabilises after weeks of decline

Air cargo tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe appear to have begun to stabilise after weeks of sharp declines since new European Union (EU) import duty rules from 1 July added costs and complexities that have particularly affected low-value e-commerce shipments. According to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data, chargeable weight from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe edged back upwards by +1% in week 34 (17 to 23 August), week on week (WoW), the first WoW increase since early June. Nevertheless, the volumes remain well below their levels this time last year, with mainland China to Europe tonnages down -8%, year on year (YoY), and Hong Kong to Europe volumes – which have been heavily dependent on e-commerce traffic in the last couple of years – down a massive -33%, YoY. For Hong Kong to Europe traffic, that YoY gap – resulting from the end of the EU’s ‘de minimis’ exemptions on low-value imports – has narrowed slightly from the -35% deficit recorded in week 33, whereas for mainland China to Europe volumes, the YoY deficit has expanded from -5% to -8%. Although it’s relatively early days since the 1 July ending of EU ‘de minimis’ exemptions on low-value imports, the WoW uptick in tonnages from China and Hong Kong (CN/HK) to Europe could signal a bottoming out of that downward trend and a potential stabilization of volumes at a new lower level, supported by rebounding post-summer demand. Asia Pacific to Europe volumes as a whole were up +3%, WoW, in week 34, mainly driven by a recovery in traffic ex-Japan (+88%, WoW) following the country’s Obon festival (13 to 16 August) national holiday and the effects of tropical storm Chan-Hom, which caused dozens of flight cancellations out of Tokyo’s Haneda and Narita airports. In comparison, Asia Pacific to US volumes in week 34 were flat, with a rebound in tonnages from Japan (+33%, WoW) offsetting declines from some other origin markets – such as ex-China (-3%, WoW) and Hong Kong (-2%, WoW). Nevertheless, CN/HK to US volumes remain significantly up, YoY, although the YoY increase in tonnages from mainland CN to the US narrowed from +14% in week 33 to +11% in week 34, whereas from HK to the US the YoY surplus widened from +6% in week 33 to +9% in week 34. However, these comparisons with last year are complicated by the many changes to US import tariffs last year and the removal by the US of its own ‘de minimis’ exemptions – since last May for CN/HK and from last August for all markets. Total Asia Pacific origin volumes in week 34 were up, WoW, by +7%, after falling by around -5% the previous week, taking them back slightly above their levels of week 33, and +4% higher than the equivalent week last year. More than half of that +7% WoW increase is explained by the recovery ex-Japan. Volumes from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins regained +4%, WoW, in week 34, taking them +7% higher, YoY, despite the continuing disruptions to capacity and traffic in parts of that region due to the US-Iran confrontation. MESA to Europe tonnages were up +3%, WoW, mainly driven by increases from India (+5%), but also from Dubai and Bangladesh (+6%). MESA to USA tonnages, in contrast, were down -1% WoW, mainly driven by a decline in volumes from Dubai (-15%). But these increases from MESA and Asia Pacific were offset by WoW declines in tonnages from Europe (-4%) and North America (-2%) origins, limiting global WoW growth to +2% in week 34, and the YoY worldwide increase to +5%. On the pricing side, average worldwide air cargo rates remained stable at US$2.98 per kilo – much as they have for the last 5 weeks – based on a full-market mix of spot rates and contract rates, and are +22% higher than this time last year. Average worldwide spot rates in week 34 edged up +1%, WoW, to US$3.36 per kilo, making them +28% higher, YoY, with the biggest YoY percentage rises coming from North America (+51%). MESA (+42%), and Europe (+27%), with Asia Pacific origin rates up +22%, YoY. Alongside the declines in tonnages from mainland China to Europe in the last two months, spot rates on that market also fell, WoW, for six consecutive weeks from mid-June to the end of July, from a peak this year of $5.43 per kilo in week 25 just prior to the EU de minimis change, to $3.79 per kilo in week 31, a decline of around -30%. However, they have rebounded somewhat since then, rising for three consecutive weeks to $4.14 in week 34, as carriers have adjusted capacity to the new levels of demand. That’s around -24% below the mid-June peak but is up by +13% compared with the equivalent week last year. Hong Kong to Europe spot rates also have fallen significantly in the last two months, from a near 2026 high of $5.80 per kilo in week 25 to $4.90 in week 31, a decline of -16%. Although they rallied slightly in weeks 32 and 33, they fell back to $4.91 in week 34 – which is only slightly (+5%) above their level in the equivalent week last year. Average spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe were stable, WoW, in week 34 at $4.42 per kilo, +15% higher, YoY. Among the key origin markets, spot rates from key high-tech export hubs such as South Korea (+25%, YoY), Taiwan (+25%), and many parts of southeast Asia, were well above the regional average, including Vietnam (+22%, YoY), Thailand (+32%), Malaysia (+42%) In comparison, spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US have been relatively stable in recent weeks, including in week 34, at an average of $6.36 per kilo, +32% higher than this time last year. That includes CN/HK to US spot rates, which have been fairly stable for the last 6 weeks, standing in week 34 at $6.18 and $6.42 per kilo, respectively, although for mainland China that is around -16% lower than their 2026 peak of $7.43 in week 25, and for Hong Kong -16% lower than their 2026 peak of $7.43 in week 24. Total worldwide air cargo capacity remained broadly stable in week 34, regaining around +1%, WoW, after retreating slightly (-1%, WoW) in each of the previous two weeks. The biggest WoW increase was from Asia Pacific markets, where capacity rebounded by +3% in week 34 after falling by a similar amount in the previous two weeks combined. Capacity from MESA markets regained +1%, WoW, in week 34 after rising +2% the previous week. Compared with its level in week 7, prior to the start of the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, total worldwide air cargo capacity in week 34 was almost +3% higher. That includes significant increases in capacity from Europe and North America, whereas capacity from MESA markets in week 34 was still around -11% below its pre-war level, and from the Gulf area it is -17% below the levels in week 7. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Sally Passey at [email protected]