WorldACD: Asia-Pacific to US tonnages fall further

Worldwide air cargo rates held firm in the second full week of July, despite a second consecutive week-on-week (WoW) small drop in overall global flown tonnages, with volumes from Asia Pacific origins to the US recording further declines. According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, global average spot rates actually edged up slightly (+1%) in week 28 (7 to 13 July) to US$2.65 per kilo, thanks largely to a +6% WoW rebound in both pricing and tonnages from North America origins following US Independence Day on 4 July. That followed a fall in tonnages of -11% from North America origins the previous week. Like in week 28 last year, the post 4 July recovery for origin North America has not yet fully materialized. Those worldwide average spot rates, and many of the price and demand patterns during week 28, were very similar to the equivalent week this time last year – including global average full-market rates of $2.46 per kilo, based on a mix of spot and contract rates. However, the US dollar is around -6% weaker now than it was a year ago against other major world currencies, such as the euro. In euros, average worldwide rates are down by around -6%, year on year (YoY). But perhaps the most noteworthy development in week 28 was the second consecutive week of falling tonnages from Asia Pacific origins to the US, where volumes dropped by another -5%, WoW, after a -2% decrease reported last week. The decline in week 28 was again mainly driven by Southeast Asia origins, including double-digit percentage declines, WoW, from Indonesia (-23%), Thailand (-21%), Vietnam (-14%), and Singapore (-10%). All had already recorded WoW declines in week 27, with the exception of Thailand, which had recorded a +2% WoW rise in week 27. However, there were some modest WoW increases in flown tonnages to the US from certain other key Asia Pacific origins, with volumes rebounding from Japan (+6%), and Hong Kong (+3%), and a further small rise from South Korea (+1%). However, Taiwan and China were both down by -3% WoW. Spot rates from Asia Pacific origins to the US were down by -2%, WoW, mainly caused by a -20% fall in pricing from Japan and some smaller WoW reductions from parts of Southeast Asia (Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore). In comparison, tonnages from Asia Pacific to Europe in week 28 were again relatively stable (+1%, WoW). Volumes from most Asia Pacific origin countries were slightly up, WoW, led by South Korea (+7%, WoW) and Malaysia (+5%), although tonnages from Taiwan were down, WoW, by -3%, after also falling in the previous two weeks. Another region that is seeing some significant change is Middle East & South Asia (MESA). Against the complex background of a continuing recovery from Eid, renewed regional conflicts and flare-ups, a revival of attacks by Houthis on ships in the Red Sea, and some specific logistics challenges in parts of the Indian subcontinent, flown chargeable weight from MESA origins dropped by -3%, WoW, in week 28, with full-market average rates down -3%, and spot rates down by -4%. Although tonnages are more or less in line with their levels this time last year, average full-market rates and spot rates are down, YoY, by -12% and -18%, respectively, from their inflated levels in mid-July 2024. Tonnages flown from Bangladesh, where cargo stakeholders have reported some difficulties with a newly introduced customs system, were down by -4%, WoW, including a -8% drop to its biggest destination market Europe and a -22% fall to Asia-Pacific markets. But to the US, where Bangladeshi exporters look set to face 35% tariffs from 1 August, tonnages continued to rebound from their Eid-related lows last month, and their Independence Day lull last week, rising a further +4%, WoW. Meanwhile, there were WoW declines in flown tonnages in week 28 from other key MESA origin countries including India (-6%) and Sri Lanka (-5%) to global markets. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Kay Rolland at [email protected]