WorldACD: Asia and North America drive +9% YoY air cargo tonnage growth in September

Worldwide air cargo tonnages bounced back strongly in September following their August lull, with volumes rising +3% compared with the previous month and growing +9%, year on year (YoY), according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data. September’s strong performance was reflected across all the world’s main air cargo origin regions, including +10% YoY growth from Asia Pacific and North America origins, +9% from Middle East & South Asia (MESA), +8% YoY growth from Europe and Africa origins, and +5% YoY increase from Central & South America (CSA). It builds upon growth last year September of +4%, YoY, and comes despite the slump since 1 July in e-commerce volumes to Europe – especially from Hong Kong and southern China – following the removal of EU ‘de minimis’ exemptions on lower-value imports. It points to a robust and resilient air cargo market responding to various international geopolitical and economic changes, particularly strong demand from the high-tech sector, and air cargo’s crucial role as a delivery vehicle for high-value and time-sensitive products, and for navigating supply chain disruptions and imbalances. Rates rise globally After declining in June and July and stabilizing in August, average worldwide full-market rates also edged slightly higher in September compared with their level the previous month (+1%), including month-on-month (MoM) increases from Africa (+4%) origins, and rises of +2% from Asia Pacific and Europe, while MESA rates were flat and those from North America dropped by -3%, MoM. Compared with last year, average rates in September were +25% higher, similar to the +24% YoY increases recorded in August and July, as markets and capacity remain disrupted and fuel prices inflated by the US-Iran conflict. Average rates from MESA origins (+52%, YoY) remain the most highly inflated in percentage terms, followed by large double-digit percentage increases from Africa (+27%, YoY), Europe (+24%), Asia Pacific (+23%) and North America (+18%), with prices from CSA origins up by a more-modest +8% YoY. Capacity relatively stable in September Capacity, meanwhile, was more or less stable throughout September on a global basis, despite some fluctuations linked to holiday periods and renewed volatility in the Middle East resulting from the US-Iran conflict. As of the end of September, worldwide air cargo capacity in week 40 (28 September to 4 October) was up by around +4%, YoY, led by a +7% rise in freighter capacity and a +2% rise in passenger bellyhold capacity. Compared with the level in late February (week 7), prior to the start of the US-Iran conflict, global capacity is up by around +2%, although capacity to and from MESA is down by around -10%, with capacity to and from the Gulf area down by around -17%, while capacity from South Asia is almost flat (-1%). Examining demand and pricing in week 40 reveals that worldwide tonnages dropped for the second consecutive week, by -2%, due mainly to a -2% week-on-week (WoW) decline from Asia Pacific origins, chiefly linked to the start of public holidays in China and other parts of east Asia in the first week of October. But average worldwide spot rates and full-market rates edged upwards again (+1%, WoW) for a second consecutive week, as is common at the end of the third quarter (Q3) and the start of air cargo’s traditionally busy fourth quarter, taking them to +32% (spot) and +26% (full-market average) on a YoY basis, respectively. Third-quarter rise in tonnages, but fall in rates Looking at Q3 as a whole reveals there was a further +3% rise in worldwide tonnages compared with the previous quarter (Q2), and a +6% increase compared with Q3 last year, driven by growth from all the main air cargo origin regions. Average worldwide rates, meanwhile, dropped by -7% compared with their highly elevated levels in Q2, when markets were severely disrupted by the effects of the US-Iran conflict. But YoY, average full market rates in Q3 were up by +24%. Meanwhile, the air cargo market recorded a strong +5% YoY growth in tonnages on a year-to-date basis (January to September, 2026), with average full-market rates up by +22%, YoY. China to Europe markets slightly rebound One market that has significantly altered in Q3 has been China to Europe, where tonnages and rates have dropped significantly following the removal since 1 July of EU ‘de minimis’ exemptions on lower-value imports, which has particularly affected e-commerce volumes to Europe from Hong Kong and southern China. Combined tonnages from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe were down, YoY, by -10% in September, although that decline had moderated from a YoY fall of -14% in July and -15% in August. Within that -10% drop in September, tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe were down by -24%, but from mainland China they were down by just -2%, YoY, compared with -5% in August and -9% in July. Indeed, mainland China to Europe tonnages in September had also recovered close to their levels in June. In contrast, tonnages from China to the US have continued to grow very strongly, including +17% YoY growth in September. And the difference between China-US and China-Europe air cargo average full-market rates has also widened since 1 July, with rates from China to Europe dropping to $4.26 per kilo in August from $5.22 per kilo in June, although they recovered somewhat in September, rising to $4.53 per kilo. That’s up +9%, YoY, compared with +30% in June. Meanwhile, average spot rates from China to the US in September stood at $6.05 per kilo, a +30% increase compared with their level last September. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Sally Passey at [email protected]