IATA: Pax demand falls in June while cargo demand jumps

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for June 2026 global passenger demand showing total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), was down 1.7% compared to June 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand declined by 0.6%. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), decreased 1.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 84.2%   (-0.4 ppt compared to June 2025). The association said international demand fell 0.9% compared to June 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 1.1%. Capacity was down 0.6% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.2% (-0.2 ppt compared to June 2025). Domestic demand  contracted 3.0% compared to June 2025. Capacity decreased 2.4% year-on-year. The load factor was 84.0% (-0.5 ppt compared to June 2025). Willie Walsh “Global demand for air travel was down 1.7% in June compared to 2025,” said outgoing IATA Director General Willie Walsh. “This is largely due to domestic market declines in China, the US and Japan, and weak but improving international demand for Middle East carriers. While Middle East performance improved, renewed tensions will not help the region’s recovery and the knock-on impact of rising fuel prices will continue to burden travelers with higher airfares. People continue to travel, which is an important contributor to global economic growth. There is no doubt, however, that stabilizing the situation in the Middle East and normalizing oil supplies would improve prospects for airlines, economies and societies the world over,” Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets  Air passenger market in detail – June 2026   World   June 2026 (year-on-year, %)   share, %1   RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) PLF (level) TOTAL MARKET 100.0   -1.7 -1.3 -0.4 84.2 Africa 2.2   3.8 4.7 -0.6 73.9 Asia Pacific 34.4   -2.0 -2.1 0.1 83.1 Europe 26.7   0.8 1.4 -0.5 87.5 Latin America and Caribbean 5.4   1.5 3.9 -2.0 81.2 Middle East 9.5   -13.9 -11.3 -2.3 76.1 North America 21.8   -1.1 -1.1 0.0 86.1 1 % of industry RPK in 2025   International RPK fell 0.9%, with capacity falling 0.6%. Excluding the Middle East, international traffic was up 1.1%. Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 0.4% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity decreased 1.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.0% (+1.3 ppt compared to June 2025). Slower growth was a result of some carriers cutting back on short-haul routes due to higher fuel prices (capacity on international routes within Asia was down 4.8%).  European carriers saw a 1.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 2.0% year-on-year, and the load factor was 87.1% (-0.5 ppt compared to June 2025). Growth on the Europe-Asia corridor was 11.0%, the fastest growth among all major international route corridors. North American carriers saw a decrease in demand of 1.0% year-on-year. Capacity decreased 0.7% year-on-year, and the load factor was 86.9% (-0.3 ppt compared to June 2025). Middle Eastern carriers saw a 14% year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity fell 11% year-on-year, and the load factor was 76.3% (-2.6 ppt compared to June 2025). The impacts of the Iran war continue to cause a highly negative year-on-year traffic comparison, but the rate of decline halved month-to-month since April. This reflects both the gradual normalization of airline operations across the region and the lower comparison base as traffic in June 2025 was impacted by the military strikes that month.  Latin American airlines achieved a 3.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 6.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 81.6% (-2.2 ppt compared to June 2025).  African airlines saw a 6.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 7.0% year-on-year. The load factor was 74.2% (-0.3 ppt compared to June 2025).  Domestic Passenger Markets    World   June 2026 (year-on-year, %)   share, %1   RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) PLF (level) Domestic 37.2   -3.0 -2.4 -0.5 84.0 Dom. Australia 0.8   0.0 -1.0 0.8 81.1 Dom. Brazil 1.2   0.9 4.0 -2.5 80.2 Dom. China P.R. 11.3   -5.2 -3.4 -1.6 82.2 Dom. India 1.7   -0.5 -1.7 1.0 85.5 Dom. Japan 1.0   -3.8 -1.9 -1.5 75.8 Dom. United States 13.6   -1.2 -1.3 0.1 85.5 1 % of industry RPK in 2025 Note: the six domestic passenger markets for which broken-down data are available account for approximately 29.6% of global total RPKs and 79.4% of total domestic RPKs Domestic RPK fell (-3.0%) in June 2026 compared to the same month last year. Domestic Brazil traffic was up 0.9%, but all other major markets declined apart from Australia which was flat. The steepest falls were in China (-5.2%) and Japan (-3.8%), with higher fuel prices the likely reason. These markets also saw load factors decline, but the largest decrease in load factor was in Brazil (-2.5 ppt). Air cargo demand strengthens in June, Up 8.5% (PHOTO: Korean Air Cargo) IATA also released data for June 2026 global air cargo markets showing total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), increased by 8.5% compared to June 2025 (9.6% for international operations). Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), increased by 4.4% compared to June 2025 (4.9% for international operations). “Air cargo demand grew 8.5% year-on-year in June. While North America was the strongest contributor to growth, demand in all regions was in positive territory compared to last year. Demand growth outpaced capacity at the global level and in all regions except Latin America and the Caribbean. Demand also grew faster than global trade, supported by high-value technology products, and urgent shipments. While this all gives strong reasons for optimism in the second half of 2026, risks remain—continuing hostilities in the Middle East and a renewed focus on tariffs by the US among them,” said IATA’s  Walsh. The association said several points should be noted including: Global trade increased by 5.2% year-on-year. Jet fuel prices fell by 20% month-on-month in June but remained 45.8% above year-earlier levels. Global manufacturing activity eased slightly in June but remained supportive, while export orders weakened. The Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell 0.5 points to 53.0, while the New Export Orders Index remained below the 50-mark for a fourth consecutive month at 49.4. This suggests that air cargo growth was driven by specific trade flows rather than a broad-based increase in global exports. June Regional Performance Air cargo market in detail – June 2026    World June 2026 (year-on-year, %)   share, %1 CTK ACTK CLF (%-pt) CLF (level) TOTAL MARKET 100.0 8.5 4.4 1.7 46.9 Africa 2.1 4.7 -7.1 5.4 48.1 Asia Pacific 35.8 7.9 4.3 1.8 51.8 Europe 21.4 6.9 3.7 1.5 50.5 Latin America and Caribbean 2.9 3.5 9.8 -2.1 33.9 Middle East 13.2 5.6 2.5 1.4 46.5 North America 24.6 13.1 6.2 2.5 40.7 1 % of industry CTK in 2025   Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 7.9% year-on-year growth in air cargo demand in June. Capacity increased by 4.3% year-on-year. North American carriers saw a 13.1% year-on-year increase in air cargo demand in June, the strongest performance of all regions. Capacity increased by 6.2% year-on-year. European carriers saw a 6.9% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in June. Capacity increased by 3.7% year-on-year. Middle Eastern carriers saw a 5.6% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in June. Capacity increased by 2.5% year-on-year. While the results for the month were in growth territory, they are skewed to the positive as the comparison is to June 2025 which was particularly weak for carriers in the Middle East as a result of disruptions due to military conflict.  Latin American and Caribbean carriers saw a 3.5% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in June, the weakest performance of all regions. Capacity increased by 9.8% year-on-year.  African airlines saw a 4.7% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in June. Capacity decreased by -7.1% year-on-year. Trade Lane Growth Air cargo performance diverged across major trade lanes in June. Asia–North America recorded the strongest growth, followed by Within Asia, Europe–Asia, and Africa–Asia. In contrast, Gulf-linked corridors remained disrupted by the conflict in the Middle East. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Sally Passey at [email protected]