IATA: Pax, cargo growth softens slightly

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for February 2025 global passenger demand that showed total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres  (RPK), was up 2.6% compared to February 2024. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), was up 2.0% year-on-year. The February load factor was 81.1% (+0.4 ppt compared to February 2024). International demand rose 5.6% compared to February 2024. Capacity was up 4.5% year-on-year, and the load factor was 80.2% (+0.9 ppt compared to February 2024). Domestic demand fell 1.9% compared to February 2024. Capacity was down 1.7% year-on-year. The load factor was 82.6% (-0.2 ppt compared to February 2024). IATA Director General Willie Walsh. (PHOTO: IATA) “While traffic growth slowed in February, much of this can be explained by factors including the leap year, and lunar new year falling in January compared to February last year. February traffic hit an all-time high, and the number of scheduled flights is set to continue increasing in March and April. But we need to keep a close eye on developments in North America, which saw falls in both domestic and international traffic,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “The recent shut-down of Heathrow reminded us once again that the current passenger rights regime in place in Europe and the UK is not fit for purpose. The annual costs of compensation, care and assistance run into the billions. Thankfully, the Polish Presidency of the EU has recognised that this is a drag on European competitiveness and is progressing much-needed and long-anticipated reforms to EU261. While many of the proposed reforms are sensible, the package stops short of a real solution. Even with the reforms, EU261 will still target the airlines with penalties even if the root cause of delays is an infrastructure incident out of their control—like we saw at Heathrow. Over two decades of EU261 have not seen a reduction in delays because infrastructure providers have no incentive to improve their game. Sadly for European travelers, we are likely to see this play out again in this summer’s peak travel season. Genuine reform of EU261 must ensure that all parties responsible for delays have a stake in the consequences,” said Walsh. Air passenger market in detail – February 2025 February 2025 (% year-on-year) World share1 RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) PLF (level) Total Market 100% 2.6% 2.0% 0.4% 81.1% Africa 2.2% 6.8% 4.7% 1.5% 75.4% Asia Pacific 33.5% 4.2% 2.7% 1.3% 85.4% Europe 26.7% 4.3% 3.9% 0.3% 76.7% Latin America 5.3% 4.6% 5.6% -0.8% 81.6% Middle East 9.4% 3.3% 1.3% 1.6% 82.0% North America 22.9% -3.2% -1.9% -1.1% 79.0% 1% of industry RPKs in 2024 Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets  International RPK growth moderated to 5.6% in February year-on-year, down from 12.3% growth in January. However, this growth meant that all regions except North America established record February levels of demand. Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 9.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 8.3% year-on-year and the load factor was 85.7% (+0.9 ppt compared to February 2024). European carriers had a 5.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 4.9% year-on-year, and the load factor was 75.5% (+0.5 ppt compared to February 2024). Middle Eastern carriers saw a 3.1% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 1.3% year-on-year and the load factor was 81.9% (+1.4 ppt compared to February 2024). North American carriers saw a -1.5% year-on-year fall in demand. Capacity decreased -3.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 78.9% (+1.3 ppt compared to February 2024). Latin American airlines saw a 6.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 9.9% year-on-year. The load factor was 81.7% (-2.5 ppt compared to February 2024). African airlines saw a 6.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 4.0% year-on-year. The load factor rose to 75.3% (+2.0 ppt compared to February 2024). Domestic Passenger Markets February 2025 (% year-on-year) World share1 RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) PLF (level) Domestic 38.2% -1.9% -1.7% -0.2% 82.6% Dom. Australia 0.8% -3.8% -5.5% 1.3% 74.3% Dom. Brazil 1.1% 8.0% 4.1% 2.9% 80.3% Dom. China P.R. 11.3% -3.2% -4.5% 1.2% 86.2% Dom. India 1.6% 13.2% 11.4% 1.5% 90.3% Dom. Japan 1.0% 5.8% -1.2% 5.5% 83.9% Dom. US 14.4% -4.2% -1.2% -2.5% 78.7% 1% of industry RPKs in 2024 Note: the six domestic passenger markets for which broken-down data are available account for approximately 30.2% of global total RPKs and 79.1% of total domestic RPKs Domestic RPK fell -1.9% over the previous FeIATA pax marketbruary. Load factors were almost flat (-0.2 ppt). Traffic decline in China (-3.2%) was likely due to Lunar New Year falling in January this year compared to February 2024. Falling US consumer confidence may well have contributed to the -4.2% decline in domestic US traffic. India continued to see strong demand (+13.2%) with the load factor at 90.3% (+1.4 ppt compared to February 2024). Air cargo demand declines slightly in February (PHOTO: Singapore Airlines) IATA also released data for February 2025 global air cargo markets showing total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), declined by 0.1% compared to February 2024 levels (+0.4% for international operations). This marks the first decline since mid-2023. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), decreased by 0.4% compared to February 2024 (+1.1% for international operations). “February saw a small contraction in air cargo demand, the first year-on-year decline since mid-2023. Much of this is explained by February 2024 being extraordinary—a leap year that was also boosted by Chinese New Year traffic, sea lane closures and a boom in e-commerce. Rising trade tensions are, of course, a concern for air cargo. With equity markets already showing their discomfort, we urge governments to focus on dialogue over tariffs,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. Several factors in the operating environment should be noted: In January, the industrial production index rose 3.2% year-on-year, the highest growth in two years and world trade expanded by 5%. Jet fuel prices averaged $ 94.6/barrel in February, a 2.1% drop from January. In February, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50-mark (51.5), indicating growth. The PMI for new export orders rose slightly to 49.60 from the previous month, remaining just shy of the 50-mark, which is the growth threshold. In February, consumer inflation remained elevated in the US, Europe, and Japan, easing only slightly from the previous month. In contrast, China recorded its first decline in consumer prices in 11 months, reinforcing signs of persistent deflationary pressure in the economy. February Regional Performance Air cargo market in detail – February 2025 February 2025 (% year-on-year) World share1 CTK ACTK CLF (%-pt) CLF (level) Total Market 100% -0.1% -0.4% 0.1% 45.0% Africa 2.0% -5.7% -0.6% -2.3% 42.3% Asia Pacific 34.2% 5.1% 2.7% 1.0% 44.5% Europe 21.5% -0.1% -0.2% 0.1% 58.1% Latin America 2.9% 6.0% 7.6% -0.5% 36.5% Middle East 13.6% -11.9% -4.0% -3.9% 43.4% North America 25.8% -0.4% -3.5% 1.2% 39.9% 1% of industry CTKs in 2024 Asia-Pacific airlines saw 5.1% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February. Capacity increased by 2.7% year-on-year. North American carriers saw a 0.4% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in February. Capacity decreased by 3.5% year-on-year. European carriers saw a 0.1% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in February. Capacity decreased 0.2% year-on-year. Middle Eastern carriers saw an 11.9% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in February, the slowest among the regions. Capacity decreased by 4.0% year-on-year. Latin American carriers saw 6.0% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased 7.6% year-on-year. African airlines saw a 5.7% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in February. Capacity decreased by 0.6% year-on-year. Trade Lane Growth: The Trans-Pacific corridor remained the busiest trade lane in February. Intra-Asia led growth, becoming the fifth busiest. Europe–Asia and Transatlantic routes also expanded, while Middle East–Asia and European routes declined. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Kay Rolland at [email protected]