Confidence drops, caution rises in global business travel, according to Global Business Travel Assoc.

Global business travel is continuing at a steady pace into 2026, but with significantly more caution, less confidence and more operational complexity than at the beginning of the year. Organisations are still pressing forward with trips, spending and meetings, yet are doing so amid escalating conflicts, higher costs and growing disruption. The shift can be seen across regions but is most pronounced in Europe, where industry pessimism now outweighs optimism as broader geopolitical conflicts are increasingly shaping travel routes, safety considerations, and meetings decisions worldwide. In parallel, the travel manager role is increasingly strategic, including leveraging AI as a key enabler of smarter decisions and stronger organisational impact. VIEWPOINT: War – what is it good for? This is according to the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) from its April business travel industry sentiment poll reflecting perspectives from over 500 corporate travel managers, travel suppliers and intermediaries worldwide. Results broadly show a more cautious outlook compared with GBTA’s January poll, with organisations actively adjusting why and how they are traveling for work now. “What we’re seeing is not a broad pullback from business travel, but a more deliberate and carefully managed approach to it. Organisations continue to travel and meet – and innovate – but they’re doing so while adapting to rising costs, operational friction and escalating geopolitical tensions,” said Suzanne Neufang, Chief Executive Officer of GBTA. These pressures are reshaping how, where and why companies are traveling now—making experienced business travel professionals more critical than ever to keeping travelers safe, navigating risk and disruption, and controlling budgets so organisations and people can continue to connect and do business.” Geopolitical tensions now the dominant concern Geopolitical instability has become the most significant external risk influencing business travel decisions in 2026, according to April poll respondents. Nearly eight in ten respondents (79%) now cite geopolitical instability and conflict as a top travel-related risk, making it the industry’s leading concern globally. The impact is especially visible in Europe, where more than 9 in 10 respondents (92%) identify geopolitics as a primary risk, compared with 72% in North America. Current geopolitical conflicts, including tensions involving Iran and the Middle East, are having tangible impacts on industry outlook and operations: 76% of buyers say geopolitical conflicts are having a moderate or significant impact on their organization’s business travel and meetings decisions. Travel suppliers report even greater impact, with more than four in five (83%) indicating these conflicts are materially affecting their customers. Organizations report real-world consequences, including route and itinerary changes (50%), suspension of all travel to/within the region (50%), and re-evaluation of duty of care policies (36%). Confidence drops, especially in Europe Overall industry optimism has weakened considerably since the start of the year. Just 41% of all global respondents say they are optimistic about the business travel industry in 2026, down from 59% in January. At the same time, the share expressing pessimism has nearly tripled, rising from 9% in January to 24% of respondents in April, likely reflecting the heightened exposure to geopolitical instability, travel affordability pressures and overall disruption. This erosion in sentiment is evident across both travel buyers and suppliers. Buyer optimism fell from nearly six in ten in January (59%) to fewer than four in ten (39%) in April, while supplier optimism fell from more than half (57%) to just over four in ten (45%). Regionally, Europe now stands as the only region where pessimism outweighs optimism in terms of the year-ahead outlook. Optimism among European respondents was relatively strong in January (58% optimistic versus 14% pessimistic), but fell significantly by April, with just 21% now optimistic and pessimism rising to 38%. In contrast, North America remains net positive ─ 59% optimistic and 9% pessimistic in January ─ but optimism materially declined by April, with 45% optimistic and 19% pessimistic. In terms of outlook for 2026, increasingly widespread concerns cited by all respondents include the affordability of business travel (82%, vs. 70% in January) and employee safety when they are traveling (67%, vs. 56%). Business travel continues, but downside risk grows Despite the weakening outlook, business travel activity is expected to continue through 2026, but expectations have softened meaningfully since January. Business travel volume: Among buyers, 28% now expect volume to decline in 2026, a significant shift from 16% in January, signaling growing downside risk. 30% expect the number of business trips taken at their organization to increase in 2026, down from 35% in January, while 41% anticipate their year-over-year volume to remain unchanged. Business travel spending: Expectations for spending remain comparatively stronger, driven by cost pressures. 43% of buyers expect travel spending to increase, similar to January levels. 22% now expect spending to decline, up from just 13% at the start of the year. Business travel supplier revenue: Travel suppliers are becoming more cautious in their outlook as well. Just 35% expect travel-related revenue to increase, down from 47% in January, while the share expecting revenue to decline has risen sharply since the beginning of the year (27% now vs. 7%). This reflects a more support-intensive and cost-constrained operating environment. Meetings and events: Strategies adjust but in-person value holds Geopolitical risk and cross-border complexity are not only affecting individual trips but also reshaping meetings and events planning. Over a third of buyers (38%) say they’re less likely to host multinational meetings in the U.S. than they were six months ago. More than half of buyers (56%) say their organization has changed its meetings or events strategy in the past three months. This includes shifting some meetings or events to virtual formats (26%), canceling meetings or events (24%), reducing employee event attendance (24%), and relocating meetings to different markets (22%). European buyers (33%) are significantly more likely than those in North America (21%) to shift meetings or events to virtual formats, underscoring a higher level of disruption sensitivity. At the same time, travel buyers emphasise that certain gatherings remain difficult to replace. Sales and client meetings (53%) and conferences or trade shows (51%) are cited as the hardest in-person activities to shift to virtual alternatives—rising to 63% among European buyers for conferences and trade shows. Travel management’s role more essential As disruption and evolution intensifies, the role of travel management and travel professionals is becoming increasingly strategic. Seven in ten buyers (70%) say the travel management function becomes more important during periods of disruption, with responsibilities moving closer to leadership, risk management, and enterprise decision-making. Many report increased involvement in traveler safety, policy changes, crisis response, and meetings decision-making. Regardless of region, by far travel buyers (92%) are confident their organization can effectively support their travelers during a major disruption. Artificial intelligence is becoming one of the clearest tools buyers see for operating more strategically. More than two in five buyers (41%) say their organization is proactively implementing AI use cases while another 28% are leveraging AI embedded in existing travel tools. Buyers view AI as a critical enabler and they are prioritizing building AI and automation skills (37%) to drive better reporting, pricing insight, spend forecasting, and more informed decision-making and voicing their biggest barrier as data/privacy/security concerns (47%). For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Sally Passey at [email protected]