Forgive me for sounding cynical, but all this to and fro in the aviation industry about “sustainability” is coming too late to have any real impact on the planet we call home by the deadlines the industry has set. Depending upon who you ask and in which sector, the industry wants to achieve net-zero by 2050 with others hoping for a 2030 goal.
The older I get and the more I look back on the Earth we all share, it’s not going to happen. And my child and your children will be the ones to pay the price.
I’ve written previously that I believe the aviation industry gets a bad rap when it comes to the environment. It is certainly not the most polluting industry out there by any measure but suffers from the problem of being one of the most visible. One only has to look up in the sky to see a plane with its contrails and out come the “tsks, tsks, tsks”. Business aviation gets an even worse rap.
It’s not that I don’t applaud the industry for talking a good game, but that’s about all it is at the moment. A lot of talk. Sure, there’s contracts being signed for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) such as the one Air New Zealand recently signed with Neste, every aviation-related company either has brought on or is bringing on a so-called “chief sustainability officer”, and press release after press release touts the latest environmental move by every aviation company on the planet.
There are also what I call “moon-shot” ideas like using hydrogen.
Airbus wants to have a hydrogen-powered plane in the skies by 2035. But this is not new. The former Soviet Union actually flew a hydrogen-powered plane. The Soviets used a modified Tupolev Tu-154 that first flew in 1988. It used first liquid hydrogen and later liquified natural gas, but only one engine on the plane used hydrogen. Kelly Johnson, the legendary leader at Lockheed’s Skunk Works, also worked on a hydrogen-powered plane but gave up because of the challenges involved. While all this happened decades ago, the challenges in using hydrogen remain. It ’s not good for long-haul flights where most of the pollution occurs and storing it at airports is not a good idea because of its volatility. Anyone remember the Hindenburg? Hydrogen fuel cells may be another matter for things like Urban Air Mobility vehicles that are being planned for short hops from city centres to airports or within a city (think Manhattan to the Hamptons in the US or Singapore to points in Malaysia).
In the short term, most in the industry agree that SAF will offer the most immediate benefits. Engine makers, airlines and other industry players hold conference after conference touting the benefits of SAF. But even SAF has its problems. For it to be truly successful, the feedstock to make SAF can’t compete with the world’s food supply, and it shouldn’t come from things like palm oil, which is one of the most destructive crops out there when it comes to clear-cutting virgin forests. One only has to drive from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore to see from horizon to horizon the amount of forest that has been cleared for palm oil plantations. And there’s only so much leftover cooking oil from McDonald’s fries that we can use.
Again, forgive me for being cynical, but when it comes to saving the planet, the human race is doing a terrible job. Why you ask? Money. The jet fuel currently in use is simply too cheap compared to SAF and especially hydrogen. I don’t see the fossil fuel companies going away in my lifetime. They’ve known for decades about the effects of burning oil but hid that information because they are making too much money. When it comes to money, you can’t trust the human race. (Just look at Qantas. It sold tickets to people for flights it knew were not going to fly. Why? Money.)
I really hope I’m wrong about all of this. I hope SAF will become the reality everyone talks about, I hope new technologies will save aviation so it can keep growing and I hope the industry, regulators and everyone else will quit talking and start doing. I hope, but I don’t think it will happen.
But maybe at the end of the day, there’s a bright spot. Once all the ice is gone from Greenland, the Arctic, and Antarctica, we’ll finally be able to see those hidden UFO bases under the South Pole everyone talks about.
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