WorldACD: Post-Eid recovery masks demand pressure

Global tonnage improved +3% in week 15 (April 7-13) after the previous week’s drop of -7% as markets that had closed for the Eid-al-Fitr holiday came back on stream, but comparison with last year’s developments for this holiday indicates that this constituted less than half of the decline in week 14, which suggests that demand has been further afflicted by uncertainty about the trade conflict triggered by the US government. The comparison of the last two weeks with the previous two weeks (2Wo2W) shows a worldwide decline of -6% in chargeable weight, down from a -4% 2Wo2W slip in week 14. However, year on year (YoY) tonnage was at +9%, based on the last two weeks, up from a +7% in our previous report, but this positive trend is caused by the Eid festival that took place in week 15 last year. The upward momentum in worldwide pricing seen in recent weeks hit a wall, retreating from US$2.50 in week 14 to $2.48 (-1%), which slowed the 2Wo2W momentum from +3% last week to +2%. The uncertainty over trade conditions has caused companies to postpone investment and sourcing decisions until there is more clarity, and in some cases to cancel orders. This has dented demand, while capacity increased +1% on a 2Wo2W basis. Compared to a year ago pricing in week 15 was still slightly up (+2%), based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. After the Eid holiday volumes rebounded in double-digit percentages week on week (WoW) out of Africa (+13%) and Middle East & South Asia (MESA, +12%), while tonnage increased +4% out of Asia Pacific and +3% out of Central and South America, whereas Europe and North America origins registered declines of -1% and -2% respectively. North America was the only origin region that registered increased pricing week on week, up +4%. Rates were flat out of Europe and Central & South America, and fell by -2% from Asia Pacific, -3% from Africa and -4% from MESA. The -2% WoW rate decline out of Asia Pacific was largely the result of the post-Eid recovery of traffic within the region and to MESA, that have lower-than-average rates, also driving down the global average rate. Pricing from Asia Pacific to North America rose +6% on a 2Wo2W basis, while tonnage on the sector sank -5%. Notwithstanding a +4% WoW rise in exports from Asia Pacific overall (some of this again related to the post-Eid holiday rebound), there are ominous signals on transpacific outflows. Volumes to the US fell -3% for a second week in a row, marking a third week of decline in this lane. The deterioration in tonnages from China and Hong Kong worsened from a -2% decline in week 14 to a drop of -7%. Amid the escalating tension between China and the US, not to mention some order cancellations from Amazon and other US firms with their Chinese suppliers, the outlook for a recovery in traffic is doubtful. The recent decline also suggests that a surge in online orders by American consumers before the withdrawal of de minimis exemption for e-commerce imports from China set for 2 May has not materialized so far. One alleviating factor could be the US government’s decision to exempt laptops, cell phones and semiconductors from its reciprocal tariffs on China for the time being. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Kay Rolland at [email protected]