WorldACD: Labour Day adds to tonnage declines from Asia Pacific

Air cargo tonnages declined steeply last week from Asia Pacific and specifically from China and Hong Kong to the USA ahead of the changes to US ‘de minimis’ rules on 2 May, with 1 May ‘Labor Day’ holidays and Japan’s ‘Golden Week’ holidays also contributing significantly to week-on-week (WoW) declines in worldwide flown cargo. According to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data, worldwide air cargo tonnages dropped by -3%, WoW, in week 18 (28 April to 4 May). Cargo from Asia Pacific origins recorded by far the biggest WoW decrease of -11%, with Central & South America (CSA) origin cargo recording a -3% drop, after spiking in recent weeks due to high Mother’s Day flower shipment volumes. Cargo from Africa, and from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) was flat, WoW, with a small increase from North America (+1%), and a +7% rise from Europe origins, related to post-Easter recovery. Worldwide, average rates of US$2.40 per kilo were broadly in line with the level of the previous two weeks, based on a full market average of spot rates and contract rates. Average rates from Asia Pacific increased by +3%, WoW, but this was mainly the result of a ‘mix effect’ – a steep drop (-26%) in (lower-yield) intra-Asia Pacific volumes and a smaller decrease in volumes of other origin Asia Pacific flows (-12%) at relatively high average rates (raising the proportion of higher-yield cargo). In fact, average rates for origin Asia Pacific flows, excluding intra-Asia Pacific volumes, decreased by -1%. Spot rates in week 18 averaging $2.56 per kilo worldwide were also flat, WoW, with increases from CSA (+11%, WoW), North America (+6%), and MESA (+1%) cancelled out by falls in spot rates from Asia Pacific (-3%), Europe (-3%), and Africa (-2%, WoW). The ending on 2 May of ‘de minimis’ import reporting and fee exemptions for goods from China and Hong Kong to the USA looks set to have a very big impact on air cargo markets, with several reports indicating that dozens of weekly transpacific freighter services have been cancelled or suspended or shifted to other markets such as the transatlantic. But the full effects are likely to become clearer in the figures for week 19, when a full week of post- ‘de minimis’ figures are available. Calculations by WorldACD, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data, suggest that over 95% of the WoW worldwide air cargo tonnage declines in week 18 may be due to the combined effects of 1 May ‘Labor Day’ holidays (responsible for around 80% of the drop) and Japan’s ‘Golden Week’ holidays – where a -45% WoW drop in tonnages ex-Japan alone contributed a further 17% to the worldwide WoW tonnage decline. However, if we compare the falls in flown chargeable weight in week 18 from Asia Pacific to the USA (-10%, WoW) and China to the USA (-14%, WoW) with those from Asia Pacific to Europe (-4%, WoW), and China to Europe (-3%, WoW), there seems to be a big difference in the relative performances of those markets. This suggests that the changes in the China-US (de minimis) rules are already having a significant effect. On the pricing side, average weekly spot rates from China to the USA have been somewhat volatile in the last two months, ranging between $3.34 and $4.99 per kilo. They fell in week 18, WoW, for the fourth consecutive week, dropping a further -9% to 3.85 per kilo. But to Europe, spot rates from China have been more stable in the last two months, ranging between $3.87 per kilo and $4.29 per kilo, dipping by -4% in week 18 to $3.97 per kilo. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Kay Rolland at [email protected]