WorldACD: Global tonnage slows as rates inch up

Global airfreight tonnage retreated for a second consecutive week in week 32, slipping -2% from the previous week, which had been -1% below the chargeable weight of week 30, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. Only Africa (+3%) and Central & South America (+1%) showed growth, whereas volume contracted out of North America (-5%), Middle East & South Asia (-4%) and Europe (-3%). Tonnage from Asia Pacific was unchanged. Apart from a +1% gain in week 30, global airfreight volume has retreated in three of the past four weeks in low increments. The decline in week 32 marks a deterioration on a comparison of the last two weeks with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), which shows a small decrease of -1%. When comparing week 32 with the same period last year (YoY), chargeable weight was up from all regions, with the exception of Europe and Africa (both remained stable), led by Asia Pacific (+7%) and Central & South America (CSA, +6%). On a 2Wo2W basis, traffic from Asia Pacific was flat intra-region and retreated to North America (-2%), Middle East & South Asia (-3%) and Europe (-5%). Origin region Middle East & South Asia (MESA) saw flat traffic to Europe and a -9% drop to Asia Pacific. Chargeable weight out of North America was flat to CSA, slipped -2% to Europe and saw a steep decline to Asia Pacific of -11%. As global capacity was largely unchanged week on week (WoW), global pricing rose +1%. This was driven by higher rates out of Europe (+3%) and Asia Pacific (+1%). YoY pricing was down -1% overall, falling in all origins except Africa (+9%) and Europe (+7%). While rates from Asia Pacific, CSA and North America are down in low single-digit percentages, they are -14% lower out of MESA, reflecting some normalisation from the soaring rates seen a year earlier due to the Red Sea crisis. With the exception of a +7% jump in pricing from CSA to Europe and a -4% contraction in rates MESA to Europe, rate fluctuations between regions in 2Wo2W have played out in a narrow band in line with the slow season. Export tonnage from Asia Pacific to Europe and North America hints at divergent trends, with chargeable weight in the former sector slipping -1%, marking four consecutive weeks of decline. Although westbound tonnage from Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan rose, it sank -3% out of China and fell in double digits from South Korea (-10%) and Indonesia (-18%). Tonnage out of China to Europe has fallen for the past four weeks. Still, YoY volume from Asia Pacific to Europe was up +7%, mainly driven by gains of +29% from Vietnam, +21% from Hong Kong and +8% from China. In contrast to the recent slowdown in Europe-bound tonnage, chargeable weight from China to the USA grew +1% WoW, following flat growth in week 31 and a +5% increase in week 30. After being under last year’s volumes since mid April, this is the first week now showing a YoY growth of +5%. The opposing developments on sectors to Europe and North America suggest a potential rebalancing of Chinese airfreight exports and a re-engagement with the USA as more tariffs are finalized. Nevertheless, spot rates from China to the USA are still -11% lower than a year ago, despite a +5% rise WoW. Pricing from Asia Pacific to the USA rose +2% WoW but remains -14% down year on year, reflecting stark contrasts between trade lanes. Rates from Taiwan to the USA jumped +9% WoW but dropped -5% out of South Korea and -2% each from Japan, Vietnam and Singapore. South Korea’s -5% drop in pricing followed a slump of -10% the previous week, which erased previous YoY gains. Taiwan is the only market in the region to show higher rates (+9%) to the USA on a year on year basis. Declines range from -8% in prices out of Thailand to -29% out of Vietnam. Spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe showed less turbulence, being stable versus last week and down -3% YoY. Week on week declines out of China (-3%), Hong Kong and Singapore (-2% each), South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand (all -1%) were compensated by increases from Vietnam (+4%), Japan, Malaysia and Indonesia (all +3%). Pricing from Asia Pacific to Europe has shown little change WoW since a -5% drop at the beginning of May. Rates have been down compared to the previous year for the most part since the second week of June. In week 32, Thailand (+2%) and Japan (+1%) are the only Asia Pacific origin markets showing higher rates to Europe on a YoY basis. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Kay Rolland at [email protected]