WorldACD: China-Europe downturn weakens global July market performance

Air cargo tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe have fallen for the sixth consecutive week largely due to higher costs and complexities resulting from new European Union (EU) import rules since 1 July, depressing global growth and contributing to a drop in worldwide rates. According to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data, chargeable weight from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe fell, week on week (WoW), by a further -5% and -3%, respectively, in week 31 (27 July to 2 August), with year-on-year (YoY) declines of -7% from China and -24% from Hong Kong. For July as a whole, tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe were down -19% compared with their level in June, and -24% below the volumes recorded in July last year. Tonnages from the rest of China to Europe have been less affected than those in the e-commerce-driven Hong Kong market by the end of the EU’s tariff-free exemptions on goods valued less than €150, with volumes from mainland China to Europe dropping -3% in July, month or month (MoM), and down -6% compared with last July. China and Hong Kong combined tonnages to Europe in July were down by -9% MoM, and -12% YoY. Spot rates from both China and Hong Kong to Europe during that same six-week period have also been in persistent decline. Average spot rates from Hong Kong to Europe have dropped from US$5.80 per kilo in mid to late June (week 25) to $4.96 per kilo in week 31, a decline of -15%. And from the rest of China, they have fallen from $5.43 per kilo in week 25 to $3.86 per kilo in week 31, a drop of -29%, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. Spot rates from both mainland China (+2%) and Hong Kong (+7%) in week 31 remain slightly higher than the equivalent week last year, but the difference from last year’s rates has narrowed tremendously from the +25% higher levels of the previous three months. Spot rates from many parts of Asia Pacific to Europe remain at highly inflated levels compared with this time last year, including from Taiwan (+33%, YoY), Vietnam (+39%, YoY) and Thailand (+32%, YoY). But the fall in spot rates to Europe from China and Hong Kong in recent weeks has narrowed the overall increase versus last year for Asia Pacific to Europe spot rates from +39% in week 25 to just +17% in week 31. For July, spot rates from Asia Pacific origins to all destinations dropped by -10% compared with the previous month to an average of $4.75 per kilo, although that remains +29% higher than July last year. Globally, average spot rates of $3.41 per kilo in July were -8% below the previous month, but +29% higher than in July last year. All of the world’s main air cargo origin regions recorded a MoM decline in spot rates in July, although all remain at least +20% up, YoY, with the exception of Central & South America (CSA), where spot rates are up by just +5%, YoY. Those elevated spot rates reflect a combination of higher fuel surcharges this year triggered by the rise in jet fuel prices caused by the US-Iran war, along with supply-demand imbalances and disruptions partly caused by that conflict, plus strong ongoing demand for capacity from certain sectors, such as AI-driven data center infrastructure. Worldwide air cargo tonnages in July rose by +2% compared with June’s total volumes, taking chargeable weight +5% higher than in July last year. That +5% YoY growth figure for July is down from the +9% YoY growth recorded in June, largely because growth from Asia Pacific origins almost halved on a YoY basis (+11% in June, +6% in July), although the YoY full-month growth figures for Europe origins (from +8% to +3%) and Middle East & South Asia (MESA, from +12% to +4%) dropped more in percentage terms. Worldwide air cargo capacity edged slightly upwards again (+1%, WoW) in week 31, largely thanks to a +5% WoW recovery in capacity to and from MESA markets linked to another relative easing of tensions in the Gulf and a +2% rebound in capacity from Asia Pacific following another typhoon that had affected parts of the region. MESA capacity in week 31 was around -11% below its levels in week 7, prior to the US-Israel attacks on Iran, with Gulf capacity rebounding in week 31 to -20% below pre-war levels from around -27% in week 30. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Sally Passey at [email protected]