VIEWPOINT: War-what is it good for? Part II

Asian Aviation Editor Matt Driskill Still absolutely nothin’ is what war is worth. The world is in the grip of the madness of “King” Trump and aviation finds itself smack in the middle as airlines race to secure fuel supplies, ground airplanes, and cut capacity. The more-then-ill-conceived US-Israel war on Iran continues, with new uncertainties delivered daily. Cirium is reporting that global capacity for May has already been reduced with airlines cutting flights and frequencies. In a recent report, the company said: “Turning to the 100 largest carriers, those with the biggest reductions in planned capacity unsurprisingly have several from the Middle East at the top of the list. However, there are airlines from a wide variety of countries represented in the data. Southeast Asian carriers appear to have been greatly impacted, consistent with media reports of fuel supply shortages in Vietnam and Philippines. Airlines from Malaysia and Indonesia have also cut planned schedules by around 10-15 percent. Some smaller Chinese airlines are also included, such as Sichuan Airlines and Xiamen Airlines.” VIEWPOINT: War – what is it good for? (Part I) Cirium also said, “The more severe scenarios will require airlines to take additional action. Older, less fuel-efficient aircraft are the most likely to see utilisation cuts or parking. Airlines will seek to preserve cash in such circumstances, implying maintenance deferrals and fewer lease extensions. New aircraft deliveries appear less vulnerable, given the obvious fuel savings they deliver, but airframers themselves may face additional supply chain issues.” Bloomberg reported that Qantas Airways is reducing its flights to the US and will also cut domestic flight capacity by about 5 percent as it estimates an extra A$800 million (US$575 million) on its fuel bill in the second half of its fiscal year. Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific is cutting 2 percent of flight frequencies across the Asia-Pacific region from mid-May to the end of June. Its money-losing budget unit, HK Express, is implementing a steeper 6 percent pullback. The cuts come after fuel levies of as much as US$400 were imposed on long-haul, round-trip services, Bloomberg reported. “We have pursued every suitable means to keep our flights operating as normal,” Cathay Chief Customer and Commercial Officer Lavinia Lau said. “However, these measures have not been enough to mitigate the significantly increased fuel costs.” Mainland China-based airlines, which also lack fuel-hedging protection, are stepping up daily flight cancellations, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of data from Chinese provider DAST. The uptick in cuts comes as Chinese carriers schedule fewer daily domestic flights, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF. What this means is the aviation industry will be saddled with higher jet fuel prices for the foreseeable future because even if the war stopped today and a permanent end to hostilities was agreed to, oil prices will not suddenly drop to pre-war levels. Trump is still in office and there is literally no telling what he will do. Iran could release another one of its Lego-based AI short videos mocking him that have proven very effective on social media and Trump could restart hostilities with a social media post. Israel too might restart its bombing campaign and might go it alone should the US decide to bow out as the November elections edge closer and closer. The uncertainty will also spill over into non-airline travel sectors. Hotels, rental cars, airports, taxis, you name it, if it has to do with travel it will suffer. Ironically, despite the worries of Asian airlines over fuel supply and cost, they are benefitting somewhat from the absence of flights in the Middle East, where Gulf carriers like Qatar and Emirates had carved out a very lucrative business carrying passengers from Asia to Europe with a stop in the Gulf. Major Asia-Pacific carriers like Singapore Airlines, Qantas and Cathay have been reporting better traffic from Europe to Asia as travellers skip Gulf carriers. Cathay officials said they have added additional flights and capacity to Europe ​in March and April. Singapore Airlines said the percentage of seats filled on its European flights jumped to ​93.5 percent in March, up from 79.7 percent a year earlier, due in part to spillover Europe-bound traffic as capacity through Middle East hubs fell, according to media reports. I’ve flown via Doha many, many times from Asia to Paris and before the war planned to bring my son home to Asia from France via the Middle East. But we switched to a major Asian carrier because of the risk of Doha getting blown up by Iranian drones or seeing his flight cancelled because or other risks. Whatever one’s politics are, I think we can all agree that this is not a “just” war like World War II. It is a war of choice by Israel and the US. Yes, the Iranian government has threatened Israel, chanted “Death to America”, and was enriching uranium. But remember how the Iranian theocracy came to power – it was after the US overthrew a democratically elected prime minister in 1953 and installed the Shah who then, with US support, terrorised his own people with his secret police. And were we not assured by Trump that Iran’s nuclear programme had been “obliterated” when the US dropped bunker busting bombs on Iran’s nuclear sites? Wasn’t the Strait of Hormuz open before the US and Israel attacked? And how much longer must the world – and aviation – suffer before this madness ends? War – what is it good for? Absolutely nothin’. 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