VIEWPOINT: Trump & tariffs — and you thought COVID was bad

Asian Aviation Editor Matt Driskill. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is fond of saying “flying is freedom” but when they say that I don’t think IATA had in mind the so-called “Liberation Day” global tariff war started in April by the convicted felon that currently occupies the Oval Office in the White House. Donald Trump, the convicted felon and current president, seems to think he can bend the world to his will by imposing insane tariffs one day, easing them the next, threatening more if countries resist, and in the process cutting US$6.6 trillion (trillion with a T) from US stocks…and that was just the US. What does this have to do with aviation one might ask? A lot. Airlines, manufacturers like Boeing, lessors, airports, hotels, and everyone in the travel value chain is being hurt by US tariffs just like they were during COVID. Granted, the industry hasn’t shut down as it did during the pandemic, but the effects are already being felt with US planes being shunned by China, travellers avoiding the US which affects hotels, car rental companies, etc., and unnecessary uncertainty being thrown into the works that will hurt aviation. Walter Cho, Chairman and CEO of Hanjin Group and Korean Air. (PHOTO: Korean Air) Look no farther than South Korea for an example. “We’re already seeing the downturn in passenger volume between trans-Pacific (routes) and also to Europe,” said Walter Cho, CEO of Korean Air. “It’s subtle, maybe 5 percent compared to last year, but it has some significant impact to our business.” Cho made the comments in a CNN interview. Cho told CNN that Trump’s tariffs could cost Korean Air anywhere between US$50 million to US$100 million a year in lost revenue if lower passenger levels continue for the rest of 2025. “We are bracing for the impact we’re looking at. I don’t expect this year to be great for the Korean economy, and we are looking at our costs as we speak. But I hope, I hope I’m wrong.” Advisory firm Tourism Economics projects under an expanded trade war scenario,  international inbound visits to the US could decline by 12.7 percent this year, leading to a US$22 billion annual loss in in-bound travel spending, according to CNN. And it’s not just passenger flights. Cho also said the cargo business, which saved a lot of airlines during the pandemic, will be affected. “It’s kind of tough, because about 40 percent of our business, Korean Air business, is in cargo, and that will get impacted severely when the tariffs actually hit Korea and also China,” Cho said. But probably the most “in your face” response to Trump’s tariffs came from China, which ordered its domestic airlines not to accept any Boeing deliveries for planes that had already been ordered. As if Boeing didn’t have enough problems already. China said tariffs would have more than doubled the cost of US-made aircraft and parts, making it impractical for Chinese airlines to accept Boeing planes. About 10 Boeing 737 Max aircraft are preparing to enter Chinese airline fleets, including two each for China Southern Airlines, Air China and Xiamen Airlines, based on data from Aviation Flights Group. (IMAGE: Shutterstock) China is forecast to make up 20 percent of global aircraft demand over the next two decades. In 2018, nearly a quarter of Boeing’s output ended up there. But the US planemaker hasn’t announced a major order in China in recent years due to trade tensions and self-inflicted issues, according to various reports. As anyone with a brain (which excuses the felon in the Oval Office) knows, no one wins a trade war. And the problem with Trump’s trade war is the uncertainty. Airlines, airports, and everyone in travel wants certainty so they can plan and forecast and operate their companies properly. Of course, this escapes Trump who somehow managed to drive his own casinos into bankruptcy. That’s pretty hard to do when people are literally throwing money at you. But the uncertainty is the problem, as it was with COVID. Will Trump tax the entire plane? Just foreign-made parts? What about lessors? No one has the answers, least of all the morons currently in charge of the government of the US. How all of this will play out is anybody’s guess. The White House felon-in-chief is nothing if not ‘flexible’. When he zigs and the world zags, he’ll change direction and claim victory. Unfortunately, by the time some semblance of sanity returns to the US, aviation will have lost billions of dollars in revenue (or trillions in stock value), and real people will be hurt. But Trump doesn’t care. He’s just a wanna-be emperor with no clothes. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Kay Rolland at [email protected]