IATA: SAF production volumes still disappointing

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released estimates showing that global Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production is expected to reach around 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, representing just 0.8% of aviation fuel use, at a cost to airlines of $4.3 billion. (PHOTO: IATA) “It looks to be another disappointing year for SAF production. Five years after committing to achieve net zero by 2050, SAF production will only account for 0.8% of airline fuel use this year. The path to meeting 65% of our needs in 2050 is growing more difficult with each year of ineffectively sequenced government policies and oil companies’ manifest lack of interest. The current energy shock should add even more urgency to the development of renewables, including SAF. But we have yet to see either the energy shock, the need to develop energy independence and jobs, or the urgency to mitigate climate change materialize in the incentives needed to create a viable SAF market,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. To accelerate the scale-up of SAF, IATA is calling for coordinated action across four priorities: Expand renewable energy supply to underpin SAF production and ensure sufficient feedstocks and clean energy are available. Ensure open access to fuel infrastructure, including pipelines, storage, and airport fuel systems, to enable fair competition and efficient distribution. Strengthen policy support through effective sequencing of production incentives and investment frameworks that provide certainty and reduce risk before any mandates are imposed. Enable a global SAF market with sufficient volumes at commercially viable prices critical for the airline financial and economic sustainability. A book-and-claim system is essential to transform the SAF market from local to global by making it accessible to airlines and SAF producers regardless of their domicile. A global SAF market must also be supported by harmonised standards that create enduring rules and fair competition.  The e-SAF problem Along with SAF (from biofuel sources), e-SAF (electro-SAF) will also play a growing role in air transport’s decarbonisation. The conversion of renewable electricity using a power-to-liquid (PtL) process can produce e-SAF. E-SAF does not require biomass or waste oils, but does require large amounts of renewable electricity, green hydrogen, water, and CO2. The EU and the UK have mandated e-SAF production of around 0.6 million tonnes by 2030. However, global production capacity currently operating and under construction stands at around 0.02 million tonnes with only one single production site in operation. It would take approximately 20 commercial-scale refineries to achieve the mandated volume.  Moreover, no new final investment decisions for e-SAF facilities have been made over the past year. “The 2030 e-SAF targets by the UK and the EU are beyond unrealistic – they are utterly detached from reality. It is a reckless energy market creation strategy to impose mandates before production is enabled. Such a strategy will only drive up the price. Coupled with penalties, it diverts scarce resources from being allocated to actual CO2 emissions reductions. The strategy is also bewildering given that Europe has the highest renewable energy prices in the world. A serious strategy would first scale renewable energy production to drive its price down and build the e-SAF production capacity on sound economics. Only at that point can mandates achieve the desired results,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.  Passenger support for decarbonisation The latest IATA passenger survey (April 2026) shows strong and consistent support for decarbonising air transport. 89% of passengers believe the industry should continue reducing emissions even if governments scale back their efforts, and a similar share sees flying as essential and as something that must be made sustainable, rather than restricting its use. This support is backed by a willingness to act: about two-thirds of passengers (66%) say they are willing to pay more to compensate for emissions, and nearly 88% expect ticket prices to rise as a result of sustainability investments. Passengers also clearly favour “real” decarbonisation solutions, with 25% prioritising the use of funds for SAF and 23% for emissions-reduction technologies, far ahead of taxes (10%). Importantly, sustainability is already influencing behaviour: nearly half of travelers (48%) look at carbon emissions when choosing flights, and among those who do, over 85% say it affects their decision, while around three-quarters say they prefer airlines with stronger environmental performance. Overall, the data points to a clear message: passengers expect air transport to decarbonize, are broadly supportive of the transition, and increasingly factor sustainability into their choices, even if cost and convenience remain important. IATA launches supporting alliance for CORSIA EEU supply The International Air Transport Association (IATA) launched the Supporting Alliance for CORSIA EEU Supply, regrouping stakeholders across the CORSIA ecosystem in efforts to boost the availability of 225-250 million CORSIA Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs) by spring 2027. The Alliance seeks to: Pool the participating organisations’ resources and target bottlenecks with tailored, practical, and pragmatic implementation assistance. Facilitate and enable countries’ management of the interface between their Nationally Determined Contributions under the UNFCCC and the process required to make carbon credits available for use under CORSIA. Improve countries’ access to carbon markets and related resources. “CORSIA is the only globally agreed framework to address international aviation emissions, established by ICAO and its Member States in 2016. States, however, have their own obligations under the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC. Credits must be transferred between these systems to avoid double-counting, which has become an important bottleneck. The Supporting Alliance will provide implementation assistance to clear this and other bottlenecks that prevent credits from coming to the CORSIA market. It should be noted that CORSIA will likely generate $4-5 billion of climate finance in the first phase, and potentially $100 billion by 2035, depending on market prices. This will help fund climate action, support remote communities, and spur economic development. We welcome all carbon market stakeholders and related organisations to join forces in the Supporting Alliance to help CORSIA realise its potential social, economic and climate benefits,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist. The Alliance is open to all organisations and national governments willing to commit expertise and practical resources and to make a significant contribution to the development of CORSIA EEU supply and the robust implementation of CORSIA and Article 6.2 guidance of the Paris Agreement. The initial Alliance membership encompasses over 32 entities, including the following airlines Air Asia, Air France-KLM, All Nippon Airways (ANA), Austrian Airlines, China Airlines, Corsair, Egyptair, IAG, Japan Airlines, KM Malta Airlines, Lufthansa Group, Pegasus Airlines, Qatar Airways, Scoot, Singapore Airlines, and SWISS.  The host country implementation assistance will importantly involve recognised Article 6 and CORSIA experts in the Supporting Alliance and it will provide pro bono support to countries that want to authorize the use of domestic emissions units under CORSIA. This support will facilitate the process ahead of the first CORSIA compliance deadline in December 2027 and help countries manage reporting and review processes on an ongoing basis. Assistance is provided to countries upon request and tailored to their specific needs and their progress in implementing Article 6.2 under the Paris Agreement. 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