IATA: Pax demand up amid regional differences, but cargo demand falls due to US-Israel war on Iran

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for March 2026 global passenger demand showing total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), was up 2.1% compared to March 2025. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), decreased 1.7% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.6% (+3.1 ppt compared to March 2025). International demand fell -0.6% compared to March 2025. Capacity was down -6.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.1% (+4.7 ppt compared to March 2025). The overall decline in international traffic was led by a -60.8% fall in traffic by carriers in the Middle East. Domestic demand increased 6.5% compared to March 2025. Capacity increased 5.6% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.0% (+0.7 ppt compared to March 2025). Willie Walsh, director General of IATA. (PHOTO: IATA) “Demand for air travel continued to grow in March despite disruptions in the Middle East. The nearly 61% decline in international traffic by carriers in the Middle East did, however, restrain global growth to 2.1%. Outside of the Middle East demand grew by 8%,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. VIEWPOINT: War – what is it good for? “Everybody’s watching what’s happening with jet fuel—both supply and pricing. On the supply side, over the next months we could see shortages in parts of the world with high dependence on supplies from the Gulf, especially Asia and Europe. And the extraordinarily high cost of jet fuel is increasingly being reflected in ticket prices. While this has not impacted March traffic or forward bookings to date, it remains to be seen at what point high prices could start to shift passenger behaviour. So far, the summer is shaping up to be a normally busy time for travel. That’s positive news, but airline resilience is being tested and stabilising the supply and price of fuel is crucial. In the meantime, it’s important for regulators to be prepared to grant airlines some flexibility on slots considering the extraordinary circumstances of airspace capacity restrictions and potential fuel rationing,” said Walsh. Air passenger market in detail – March 2026 March 2026 (% year-on-year) World share1 RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) PLF (level) Total Market 100% 2.1% -1.7% 3.1 83.6% Africa 2.2% 20.6% 10.3% 6.5 76.2% Asia Pacific 34.5% 11.5% 6.0% 4.3 87.2% Europe 26.6% 7.5% 3.3% 3.2 82.1% Latin America and Caribbean 5.4% 8.4% 5.5% 2.3 83.1% Middle East 9.5% -58.6% -54.7% -6.3 68.3% North America 21.8% 2.3% 0.4% 1.6 83.7% 1% of industry RPKs in 2025 Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets International RPK fell -0.6%, the first decline since March 2021. This fall was due to the major decrease in Middle East traffic. In contrast, other international markets grew by 9%, and the passenger load factor rose in all regions except the Middle East. Asia-Pacific airlines achieved an 11.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 1.5% year-on-year, and the load factor was 91.2% (+8.1 ppt compared to March 2025). Traffic in the region was boosted by the tail end of the Lunar New Year travel period, as well as international routes (with the exception of routes to the Middle East) enjoying double-digit expansion. European carriers saw a 7.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 3.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 81.4% (+3.4 ppt compared to March 2025). Traffic between Europe and Asia surged 29.3% as direct services replaced traffic transiting through the Middle East. North American carriers saw a 3.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 0.9% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.5% (+2.3 ppt compared to March 2025). Transatlantic travel grew 3.3% and the growth rate between Asia and North America more than doubled compared to February. Middle Eastern carriers saw a 60.8% year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity decreased 56.9% year-on-year, and the load factor was 67.8% (-6.6 ppt compared to March 2025). These figures are a direct result of the US-Israel-Iran war, which closed much of the airspace in the region. Latin American airlines achieved a 12.1% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 8.4% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.8% (+2.7 ppt compared to March 2025). African airlines saw a 19.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 4.2% year-on-year. The load factor was 77.7% (+9.8 ppt compared to March 2025). Domestic Passenger Markets Domestic RPK rose by a robust 6.5% in March compared to March 2025, with capacity growth of 5.6%. China and Brazil once again led the pack with double-digit expansion, and Australia and Japan also showed notably stronger growth. Indian domestic traffic fell, perhaps as a result of fewer feeder flights to the hubs serving the Middle East. Middle East Disruption Impacts Cargo Markets (PHOTO: Korean Air Cargo) IATA also released data for March 2026 global air cargo markets showing total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), fell by 4.8% compared to March 2025 levels (-5.5% for international operations). Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), decreased by 4.7% compared to March 2025 (-6.8% for international operations). “Air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March compared to the previous year. This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East. The timing of the usual post–Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline. The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026. Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff, and operational strains. All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” said IATA’s Walsh. Several factors in the operating environment should be noted: Global industrial production grew by 3.1% year-on-year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of expansion. The global goods trade rose by 8.0% year-on-year in February. Jet fuel prices rose sharply in March, up 106.6% year-on-year, alongside a 43.1% increase in crude oil prices and a 320% surge in refining margins. Global manufacturing sentiment remained in growth territory in March, easing slightly from February. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 51.4. The PMI for new export orders was 50.1—both above the 50-point expansion threshold—signalling positive conditions for air cargo demand. March Regional Performance Air cargo market in detail – March 2026 March 2026 (% year-on-year) World share1 CTK ACTK CLF (%-pt) CLF (level) Total Market 100% -4.8% -4.7% -0.1 47.9% Africa 2.1% 7.0% -4.6% 5.4 49.6% Asia Pacific 36.0% 5.4% 5.0% 0.2 48.9% Europe 21.3% 2.2% 4.2% -1.1 59.9% Latin America and Caribbean 2.9% 1.8% 5.1% -1.3 38.3% Middle East 13.2% -54.3% -52.4% -1.9 45.7% North America 24.5% -1.2% -1.1% 0.0 40.6% 1% of industry CTK in 2025 Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 5.4% year-on-year growth in air cargo demand in March. Capacity increased by 5.0% year-on-year. North American carriers saw a 1.2% year-on-year decrease in air cargo demand in March. Capacity decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. European carriers saw a 2.2% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in March. Capacity increased by 4.2% year-on-year. Middle Eastern carriers saw a 54.3% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in March, the weakest performance of all regions. Capacity decreased by 52.4% year-on-year. Latin American and Caribbean carriers saw a 1.8% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in March. Capacity increased by 5.1% year-on-year.  African airlines saw a 7.0% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in March, the strongest rise of all regions. Capacity decreased by 4.6% year-on-year. Trade Lane Growth Air cargo performance diverged across major trade lanes in March. Africa-Asia led growth followed by Asia–Europe, with intra-Asia also holding strong on regional trade. In contrast, Gulf-linked corridors were severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Sally Passey at [email protected]