IATA: Pax demand falls 0.5% in September while cargo demand accelerates

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for September 2026 global passenger demand showing total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was down 0.5% compared to September 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 0.3%. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased 0.2% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.2% (-0.3 ppt compared to September 2025). (PHOTO: Shutterstock) International demand grew 0.4% compared to September 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 1.7%. Capacity was up 0.5% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.6% (-0.1 ppt compared to September 2025). Domestic demand fell 2.2% compared to September 2025. Capacity decreased 1.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 82.5% (-0.7 ppt during the same reference period). “Air traffic demand fell 0.5% in September, reflecting weaknesses in the Middle East and North America. Nevertheless, this was an improvement from August, with a welcome return to growth in most international markets. These patterns have more-or-less repeated themselves throughout much of the year, and we can expect this to continue amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices. Global scheduled seat capacity is expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, but the rates of growth remain weak and highly unbalanced between regions,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability, and Chief Economist. Air passenger market in detail – September 2026   World   September 2026 (year-on-year, %)   share, %1   RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) PLF (level) TOTAL MARKET 100.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 83.2 Africa 2.2 5.0 7.7 -1.9 73.5 Asia Pacific 34.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 83.4 Europe 26.7 0.3 -0.1 0.3 86.6 Latin America and Caribbean 5.4 4.3 5.1 -0.6 82.9 Middle East 9.5 -8.0 -3.8 -3.6 78.2 North America 21.8 -1.6 -1.3 -0.2 81.8 1 % of industry RPK in 2025 Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets  International RPK grew 0.4%, with capacity up 0.5%. There was a general improvement over August on most key routes, with some returning to growth and others seeing an easing in rates of decline. Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 0.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 0.4% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.1% (+0.3 ppt compared to September 2025). Traffic increased on four of the six largest international route areas serving Asia-Pacific. On routes within Asia, traffic declined by 0.9%, though this was a slower rate of decline than in August. European carriers saw a 1.8% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity rose 1.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 86.1% (+0.5 ppt compared to September 2025). Traffic on the transatlantic corridor declined by 0.6%, improving from a 2.5% contraction in August. North American carriers saw flat demand of 0.0% year-on-year. Capacity decreased 1.9% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.9% (+1.6 ppt compared to September 2025). Traffic declined on three of the four largest international route areas serving North America, although the decreases were less severe than in August. Middle Eastern carriers saw a 7.5% year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity fell 3.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 78.3% (-3.6 ppt compared to September 2025). Traffic on the Middle East–Asia corridor fell by 8.8%, a deeper contraction than the 7.9% decline recorded in August. By contrast, the 3.0% fall on the Middle East–North America corridor was a slightly smaller decline than last month. Latin American airlines achieved an 8.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 7.6% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.9% (+0.5 ppt compared to September 2025). African airlines saw an 8.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 8.8% year-on-year. The load factor was 74.8% (-0.6 ppt compared to September 2025). Domestic Passenger Markets Domestic RPK fell 2.2% in September 2026 compared to the same month last year. Resilience in Australia, Brazil, and China was outweighed by continuing weakness in the United States (-2.7%) where demand was possibly affected by subdued consumer confidence. India suffered its steepest fall (-8.3%) this year. Japan’s domestic traffic decreased by 0.8%, partly due to weather-related flight disruptions affecting part of the Silver Week travel period in September. Air cargo demand accelerates in September, up 7.7% (PHOTO: Korean Air Cargo) IATA also released data for September 2026 global air cargo markets showing total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased by 7.7% compared to September 2025 (+8.6% for international operations). Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 2.7% compared to September 2025 (+3.3% for international operations). “Air cargo demand rose 7.7% year-on-year in September, with growth across all regions. Stronger global trade and manufacturing provided a supportive backdrop, while AI-related shipments helped drive another month of double-digit growth across the Pacific. The challenge is cost. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled compared with a year ago, and yields have not kept pace. There is no shortage of goods to ship, but doing that profitably in the face of persistently high fuel prices has become more challenging,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist. Several factors in the operating environment should be noted: Global trade increased by 3.6% year-on-year in August, extending the run of consecutive monthly expansions to 42 months, on a year-on-year basis; Jet fuel prices rose by 17.5% month-on-month in September and were 103.4% higher than a year earlier; Global manufacturing activity pointed upwards in August. The Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased 0.7 points to 53.8, while the New Export Orders Index rose 0.5 points to 51.9. Both indicators reached their highest level in five years and remain supportive of air cargo demand. September Regional Performance Asia-Pacific airlines saw an 8.6% year-on-year growth in air cargo demand in September. Capacity increased by 4.9% year-on-year. North American carriers saw an 11.8% year-on-year increase in air cargo demand in September, the strongest performance of all regions. Capacity increased by 0.8% year-on-year. European carriers saw a 4.5% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in September. Capacity decreased by 1.6% year-on-year. Middle Eastern carriers saw a 3.8% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in September, the weakest of all regions. Capacity increased by 7.0% year-on-year. Latin American and Caribbean carriers saw a 6.7% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in September. Capacity increased by 7.6% year-on-year. African airlines saw a 4.7% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in September. Capacity decreased by 1.2% year-on-year. Trade Lane Growth Air cargo performance remained mixed across major trade lanes in September. Asia–North America recorded the strongest growth, followed by within Asia, Europe–North America and Europe–Asia. In contrast, Middle East-linked corridors remained under pressure, with traffic declining on both Europe–Middle East and Middle East–Asia routes. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Sally Passey at [email protected]