Embraer forecasts demand for 8,500 new jets in sub-150-seat category

Embraer has published the Market Outlook 2026, its annual 20-year forecast for commercial jet aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category. The report was released in advance of the Farnborough Air Show next week. Market Outlook 2026 estimates 8,500 orders valued at US$650 billion for new jets through 2045. It also presents analyses of global influences and trends in seven world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft. The document also analyses the standard body (< 40t) cargo segment. In the report’s introduction, Arjan Meijer, Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation, notes that a realignment of how people, capital and goods move around the globe will impact future flows of airline passengers. “The expansion of advanced manufacturing clusters and regional value chains is generating sustained demand for efficient, high-frequency links between emerging economic centres.” He also cites how a shift in consumer preferences, particularly in tourism, is driving a need for greater airline network connectivity to smaller markets with sub-150-seat aircraft. World passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) is forecast to grow 3.7% annually through 2045. China will lead among seven global regions. Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked    5.2% China 4.6% Middle East 4.4% Africa 4.3% Latin America & Caribbean 4.1% Asia Pacific 2.7% Europe 2.0% North America RPK share by the end of 2045 40%  Asia Pacific + China 37%  Europe + North America Global demand for new jets up to 150 seats       8,500  units Market value of new aircraft        USD 650 billion Jet deliveries – 8,500 (% share) – by region    2,670  North America (31%) 1,870  Europe/CIS (22%) 1,470  China (17%) 1,050  Asia Pacific (13%) 740  Latin America (9%) 370  Africa (4%) 330  Middle East (4%) For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Sally Passey at [email protected]