APAC, MidEast set to lead growth in pax, cargo

Airports Council International Asia-Pacific & Middle East (ACI APAC & MID) has projected a period of strong and sustained growth in passenger traffic across Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. The updated version of ACI APAC & MID’s Short Term Forecast 2025-2028, developed in partnership with OAG, covers 1,207 airports across 33 countries in Asia-Pacific and 10 in the Middle East. The forecast anticipates 4.8% annual passenger growth in Asia-Pacific and 5.4% in the Middle East during the 2025–2028 period. The growth is supported by resilient economic fundamentals, renewed travel demand, and airport investments. India and Vietnam continue to lead Asia-Pacific’s surge in both domestic and international travel, while Saudi Arabia is rapidly emerging as a powerhouse in the Middle East through mega–airport developments in the pipeline. Together, these markets are setting the pace for the next wave of passenger growth across the regions. Stefano Baronci Stefano Baronci, Director General of ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East, said: “Our outlook reaffirms that the region’s airports are entering a next phase of growth. With strong macro-economic fundamentals, renewed international travel demand, and record levels of airport investment, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are expected to remain the world’s most dynamic aviation markets through the decade. Despite the strong upward trajectory, geopolitical tensions and supply-side challenges around the region continue to cast uncertainty over the industry. To support this growth, our airports are not only optimising the use of existing infrastructure but also preparing for the next phase of expansion, with massive investments that will require adequate financing and revenue diversification. Stronger government support too is crucial to liberalise air transport, modernise outdated slot allocation rules, and streamline visa policies across the region, all proven drivers of economic development,” Baronci added. Asia-Pacific Overview Overall passenger traffic is set to grow 4.8% annually between 2025-2028, supported by ongoing recovery, rising airport capacity, new airlines, and aircraft deliveries. Some markets remain below pre-COVID in international capacity due to geopolitical and supply chain factors, but overall demand outlook is strong. Despite ongoing supply-chain challenges and aircraft delivery delays, the region is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels in most segments by 2026 or earlier. Asia-Pacific Subregional Outlook (2025-2028) Southern Asia: Leads growth at 6.3% annually and is already 12.6% above pre-COVID levels, powered by India. South-eastern Asia: The growth is forecast at 5.1%, with 2025 still 6.6% below 2019 due to aircraft delays and weak Chinese outbound travel. Vietnam leads with 8.1% growth, while Thailand and Indonesia trail at about 4%. Eastern Asia: Will grow at 4.3% CAGR, slightly below the Asia-Pacific average (4.8%) due to slow economic momentum in major markets. International traffic grows 6.6% CAGR, led by China’s outbound rebound at 10.3%. Oceania: The region is expected to grow at 3.3% through 2028. Despite passenger traffic in 2025 remaining 2.3% below 2019, demand remains steady, with international growth averaging around 4.3% annually between 2024-2028. Australia and New Zealand dominate the region, accounting for 90% of all passengers. Asia-Pacific: International and Domestic Outlook Domestic: Southern Asia grows fastest (6.3%), led by India. Vietnam drives strong domestic growth in South-eastern Asia. International: Eastern Asia leads with China’s outbound rebound (10.3% growth; full recovery by 2027). Strong growth is expected from India at 6.5%, Thailand (3.8%), Japan (4.6%), and Australia (5.4%). Growth Drivers of Asia-Pacific India drives Southern Asia’s growth, adding 100 million domestic passengers by 2028; international demand stays strong with new long-range aircraft. Eastern Asia’s 6.6% CAGR is fueled by China’s outbound rebound, with 10.3% international growth. Hong Kong posts a strong 9.2% CAGR, with full recovery to 2019 levels expected next year. Vietnam drives South-eastern Asia’s rebound with 8.1% annual passenger growth; full sub-regional recovery expected in 2027.  Middle East Overview Overall passenger traffic will grow 5.4% annually (2025-2028), driven by massive airport investment. Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest domestic market, will grow from 58 million passengers in 2024 to 72.5M in 2028, a 5.5% annual increase. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman International Airport in Riyadh will scale to 120 million passenger capacity by 2030 and 185 million by 2050, with five runways, as a core Vision 2030 project. Dubai is relocating its hub to Dubai World Central, targeting 260 million passengers and five runways. Abu Dhabi’s upgraded Zayed International is driving strong growth. Middle East: International and Domestic Outlook International: International passengers will grow 5.3% a year, driven by strong demand as the region strengthens its role as a global hub and major leisure–business destination. Domestic: Middle East domestic traffic is set to grow 5.5% annually between 2025-2028. Saudi Arabia is theregion’s largest domestic market that is expected to grow from 58 million passengers in 2024 to 72.5 million in 2028, a 5.5% annual increase supported by Air Arabia’s new Dammam base and the launch of Riyadh Air. CARGO (PHOTO: SriLankan Cargo) ACI APAC & MID also released its latest outlook on air cargo performance across the region, highlighting stabilising demand, recovering supply chains, and long-term growth until 2028.The updated version of ACI APAC & MID’s Short Term Forecast 2025-2028, developed with OAG, projects Asia-Pacific air cargo volumes to grow 4.3% CAGR through 2028, while the Middle East is expected to expand at a 3.3% CAGR. Asia-Pacific continues to lead global air cargo, driven by its strong manufacturing base, particularly in semiconductors and electronics, along with expanding cross-border e-commerce networks and its significant demographic scale. Together, these structural advantages are expected to sustain the region’s cargo leadership well into the future. The Middle East’s location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa has strengthened its position as a major hub for air cargo, supporting trade and attracting global logistics players. Ongoing economic development, large urban projects, and rising demand for advanced logistics services are further accelerating the region’s growth in global air freight. ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East head Stefano Baronci, said: “The resurgence of cargo, particularly significant in the first 10 months of the year in Asia-Pacific, powered by e-commerce and manufacturing shifts, highlights the region’s underlying economic resilience. Despite geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, over the next three years we expect Asia-Pacific to continue to play the lion’s share in terms of cargo growth. To prepare for this, over the next 10 years, airports in both Asia-Pacific and Middle East will invest extensively to add 71 million tonnes of additional cargo capacity. This growth trajectory requires supportive policies and coordinated planning across the cargo supply chain.” Asia-Pacific Outlook 2025-2028 Southern Asia is projected to grow at 5.5% CAGR through 2028, boosted by India’s strong economic outlook. The forecast shows South-Eastern Asia growing at 5.2%, driven by its rising role in China+1 manufacturing, while China is projected to grow at 4.4%, supported by strong cross-border e-commerce. Eastern Asia is expected to grow 2.6% CAGR to 2028, supported by steady export recovery. Oceania is projected to achieve a CAGR of 3.7%, indicating a steady increase in demand, driven by the continuous expansion of e-commerce, strong investment, and steady consumer demand. Middle East Outlook 2025-2028 The Middle East air cargo market is projected to continue its upward trajectory in the near term. Cargo volumes are forecast to grow at 3.3% CAGR from 2025 through 2028, outpacing some other regions like Europe and the United States in terms of percentage growth. Gulf airports are investing heavily through 2028, adding cargo terminals, upgrading technology, and expanding cool-chain capacity to support faster, more efficient cargo handling. Surging online retail and cross-border e-commerce, especially flows from Asia, are boosting demand. Operators are expanding express networks and automation to manage rising parcel volumes. Adoption of AI-enabled cargo management, digital booking platforms, and automated systems is strengthening efficiency and supporting the region’s projected 3.3% annual cargo growth. Potential Risk While growth prospects remain positive, geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties pose significant risks to the region’s air cargo market. Conflicts, airspace restrictions, and shifts in regional security dynamics, alongside trade policy changes and tariffs, could disrupt key corridors and affect cargo flows. For Editorial Inquiries Contact: Editor Matt Driskill at [email protected] For Advertising Inquiries Contact: Head of Sales Kay Rolland at [email protected]