In a new comparison of airline capacity data aviation data provider OAG highlights the regions and countries where airline capacity is growing and contracting, as well as the areas still waiting to resume normal levels post-pandemic. By the end of this year, four regional aviation markets will still not have returned to their 2019 capacity levels. These are:
- Southeast Asia (-13.1%)
- Eastern Europe (-8.6%)
- Southern Africa (-17.0%)
- Southwest Pacific (-4.5%)
In Southeast Asia the much-discussed Chinese international market recovery lingers, while in Eastern Europe the ongoing situation in Ukraine continues to affect capacity, although there has been growth this year. Southern Africa has seen the loss of two of its largest airlines and in the Southwest Pacific, modest capacity cuts versus 2019 from a range of airlines continue to draw back capacity growth.
A year-on-year comparison (2024 to 2023) shows there are just two regions not recording capacity growth: Central America (-0.7%) and Central/Western Africa (-1.9%).
Across the 20 largest country markets in the world half have yet to recover back to 2019 capacity levels as a combination of geo-political circumstances, aviation taxes, and sustainability pressures impact operations. However, all but Mexico (-3.3%) have grown capacity when compared to 2023.
Standout growth markets include the United Arab Emirates with 15.0% more capacity than in 2019 and 10.5% capacity growth year on year, and India, where capacity is 12.7% higher than in 2019 and has grown 8.0% this year compared to last. Spain is now the largest European market as 9.4% growth in 2024 has nudged them ahead of the United Kingdom.
Globally, there has been 6.4% capacity growth year-on-year, but with the two major manufacturers likely to deliver around 30% fewer new aircraft than hoped, aircraft grounded due to engine reliability problems (Indigo Airlines, for example, currently have around 68,000 “lost” seats per day due to aircraft out of action), and ongoing skill shortages, this growth could have been significantly higher.
John Grant, OAG’s Chief Analyst, comments: “There are clear signs that demand is coming slightly off the boil of post pandemic revenge spending. While the appetite for air travel remains, economic pressures such as the cost of living, increasing taxation and the constant spectre of geo-political events will leave most airline and airport CEOs on high alert for what’s next.“
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