The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that the air travel recovery continued through November 2022. Total traffic in November 2022 (measured in revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) rose 41.3 percent compared to November 2021. Globally, traffic is now at 75.3 percent of November 2019 levels.
International traffic rose 85.2 percent versus November 2021. The Asia-Pacific continued to report the strongest year-over-year results with all regions showing improvement compared to the prior year. November 2022 international RPKs reached 73.7 percent of November 2019 levels. Domestic traffic for November 2022 was up 3.4 percent compared to November 2021 with travel restrictions in China continuing to dampen the global result. Total November 2022 domestic traffic was at 77.7 percent of the November 2019 level.
Download the IATA passenger market analysis here.
“Traffic results in November reinforce that consumers are thoroughly enjoying the freedom to travel. Unfortunately, the reactions to China’s reopening of international travel in January reminds us that many governments are still playing science politics when it comes to COVID-19 and travel. Epidemiologists, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and others have said that the reintroduction of testing for travelers from China can do little to contain a virus that is already present around the world. And China’s objections to these policy measures are compromised by their own pre-departure testing requirements for people traveling to China. Governments should focus on using available tools to manage COVID-19 effectively—including improved therapeutics and vaccinations—rather than repeating policies that have failed time and again over the last three years,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
International Passenger Markets
- Asia-Pacific airlines had a 373.9 percent rise in November traffic compared to November 2021, which was the strongest year-over-year rate among the regions. Capacity rose 159.2 percent and the load factor was up 35.9 percentage points to 79.2 percent.
- European carriers’ November traffic climbed 45.3 percent versus November 2021. Capacity increased 25.1 percent, and load factor moved up 11.6 percentage points to 83.6 percent, highest among the regions.
- Middle Eastern airlines saw an 84.6 percent traffic rise in November compared to November 2021. November capacity increased 45.4 percent versus the year-ago period, and load factor climbed 16.5 percentage points to 77.7 percent.
- North American carriers experienced a 69.9 percent traffic rise in November versus the 2021 period. Capacity increased 45.5 percent, and load factor climbed 11.6 percentage points to 81.0 percent.
- Latin American airlines’ November traffic rose 59.2 percent compared to the same month in 2021. November capacity climbed 55.6 percent and load factor increased 1.9 percentage points to 82.9 percent.
- African airlines had an 83.5 percent rise in November RPKs versus a year ago. November 2022 capacity was up 48.4 percent and load factor climbed 14.2 percentage points to 74.3 percent, the lowest among regions.
Domestic Passenger Markets
Brazil’s domestic RPKs rose 5.1 percent in November compared to November 2021 and are now at 96.2 percent of 2019 levels. US domestic traffic climbed 5.0 percent in November compared to November 2021, pushing it to 99 percent of the November 2019 level.
Air Cargo Demand Softens in November
IATA also released data for November 2022 global air cargo markets showing that demand softened as economic headwinds persist. Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), fell 13.7 percent compared to November 2021 (-14.2 percent for international operations).
Download the IATA cargo market analysis here.
Capacity (measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres, ACTK) was 1.9 percent below November 2021. This was the second year-on-year contraction following the first last month (in October) since April 2022. International cargo capacity decreased 0.1 percent compared to November 2021. Compared to pre-COVID-19 levels (November 2019), there was a smaller contraction in overall demand (-10.1 percent), while capacity was down 8.8 percent. Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- Global new export orders, a leading indicator of cargo demand, were stable in October. For major economies, new export orders are shrinking except in Germany, the US, and South Korea, where they grew.
- Global goods trade expanded by 3.3 percent in October. Given the softening in air cargo demand, this suggests that maritime cargo was the primary beneficiary.
- The US dollar has appreciated sharply, adding cost pressure as many costs are denominated in US dollars. This includes jet fuel, which is already at elevated levels.
- The Consumer Price Index for G7 countries decreased from 7.8 percent in October to 7.4 percent in November, the largest month-on-month decline in 2022. Inflation in producer (input) prices reduced to 12.7 percent in November, its lowest level so far in 2022.
“Air cargo performance softened in November, the traditional peak season. Resilience in the face of economic uncertainties is demonstrated with demand being relatively stable on a month-to-month basis. But market signals are mixed. November presented several indicators with upside potential: oil prices stabilised, inflation slowed and there was a slight expansion in goods traded globally. But shrinking export orders globally and China’s rising COVID cases are cause for careful monitoring,” said IATA’s Walsh.
November Regional Performance
| Air cargo market in detail – November 2022 | ||||||
| World | November 2022 (% year-on-year) | |||||
| share1 | CTK | ACTK | CLF (%-pt)2 | CLF (level)3 | ||
| TOTAL MARKET | 100.0% | -13.7% | -1.9% | -6.7% | 49.1% | |
| Africa | 1.9% | -6.3% | -11.4% | 2.5% | 45.8% | |
| Asia Pacific | 32.6% | -18.6% | -4.5% | -9.5% | 54.5% | |
| Europe | 22.8% | -16.5% | -6.6% | -6.8% | 56.9% | |
| Latin America | 2.2% | 2.8% | 19.9% | -6.4% | 38.2% | |
| Middle East | 13.4% | -14.7% | 2.1% | -9.3% | 47.5% | |
| North America | 27.2% | -6.6% | 0.3% | -3.1% | 41.9% | |
- Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes decrease by 18.6 percent in November 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. This was the worst performance of all regions and a decline in performance compared to October (-14.7 percent). Airlines in the region continue to be impacted by lower levels of trade and manufacturing activity and disruptions in supply chains due to China’s rising COVID cases. Available capacity in the region decreased by 4.5 percent compared to 2021.
- North American carriers posted a 6.6 percent decrease in cargo volumes in November 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. This was an improvement in performance compared to October (-8.6 percent). Capacity increased 0.3 percent compared to November 2021.
- European carriers saw a 16.5 percent decrease in cargo volumes in November 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. This was an improvement in performance compared to October (-18.8 percent), thanks to the stronger new export orders in Germany. Airlines in the region continue to be most affected by the war in Ukraine. High inflation levels, most notably in Türkiye, also affected volumes. Capacity decreased 6.6 percent in November 2022 compared to November 2021.
- Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 14.7 percent year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in November 2022. This was a marginal improvement to the previous month (-15.0 percent). Cargo volumes to/from Europe impacted the region’s performance, registering a 16.3 percent year-on-year decline in November. Capacity increased 2.1 percent compared to November 2021.
- Latin American carriers reported a 2.8 percent increase in cargo volumes in November 2022 compared to November 2021. This was the strongest performance of all regions, and a significant improvement in performance compared to October (-1.4 percent). Capacity in November was up 2.8 percent compared to the same month in 2021.
- African airlines saw cargo volumes decrease by 6.3 percent in November 2022 compared to November 2021. This was an improvement in performance compared to the previous month (-8.3 percent). Capacity was 11.4 percent below November 2021 levels.
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