The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced continued strong passenger traffic demand in April. Total traffic in April 2023 (measured in revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) rose 45.8 percent compared to April 2022. Globally, traffic is now at 90.5 percent of pre-COVID levels. At 81.3 percent, industry load factor was only 1.8 percentage points below pre-pandemic level.
Download the IATA April Passenger Analysis here.
Domestic traffic for April rose 42.6 percent compared to the year-ago period and has now fully recovered, posting a 2.9 percent increase over the April 2019 results. International traffic climbed 48.0 percent versus April 2022 with all markets recording healthy growth, with carriers in the Asia-Pacific region continuing to lead the recovery. International RPKs reached 83.6 percent of April 2019 levels.
“April continued the strong traffic trend we saw in the 2023 first quarter. The easing of inflation and rising consumer confidence in most OECD countries combined with declining jet fuel prices, suggests sustained strong air travel demand and moderating cost pressures,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “Heading into the Northern Hemisphere peak travel season, aircraft and airports are full of people eager to make use of their travel freedoms. Airlines are working hard to accommodate them with a smooth travel experience despite continuing supply chain shortages and other operational challenges. Sadly, some governments appear more keen on punitive regulation than on doing their part to enable hassle-free travel. The Dutch Government’s high-handed effort to slash capacity at Schiphol airport is a prime example. And then we have a focus on EU-style passenger rights regulation that is spreading like a contagion. Proponents of this approach miss a key fact. EU 261 has not led to a reduction in delays. That’s because penalizing airlines raises airline costs but does not address delays caused by factors over which airlines have no control, such as inefficient air traffic management or staffing shortages at air navigation service providers. The single best thing that Europe could do to improve the travel experience is deliver the Single European Sky. As for other governments contemplating passenger rights regulations, avoiding a repeat of Europe’s mistake would be a helpful starting point.”
International Passenger Markets
- Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 192.7 percent increase in April 2023 traffic compared to April 2022. Capacity climbed 145.3 percent and the load factor increased by 13.2 percentage points to 81.6 percent.
- European carriers had a 22.6 percent traffic rise versus April 2022. Capacity rose 16.0 percent, and load factor climbed 4.5 percentage points to 83.3 percent, which was the second highest among the regions.
- Middle Eastern airlines posted a 38.0 percent traffic increase compared to April a year ago. Capacity climbed 27.8 percent and load factor rose 5.6 percentage points to 76.2 percent.
- North American carriers’ traffic climbed 34.8 percent in April 2023 versus the 2022 period. Capacity increased 26.5 percent, and load factor rose 5.2 percentage points to 83.8 percent, which was the highest among the regions. North American international traffic is now fully recovered, with RPKs 0.4 percent above April 2019 levels.
- Latin American airlines saw a 25.8 percent traffic increase compared to the same month in 2022. April capacity climbed 26.4 percent and load factor slipped 0.4 percentage points to 83.1 percent.
- African airlines’ traffic rose 53.5 percent in April 2023 versus a year ago, the second highest among the regions. April capacity was up 50.0 percent and load factor climbed 1.6 percentage points to 69.8 percent, lowest among the regions.
Domestic Passenger Markets
- China’s domestic traffic rose 536.2 percent in April compared to a year ago and surpassing the April 2019 levels by 6.0 percent.
- US airlines’ domestic demand climbed 5.5 percent in April and was 3.3 percent above the April 2019 levels.
Air Cargo Demand Decline Slows in April
IATA also released data for April 2023 global air cargo markets, showing a continued, but slower, decline against the previous year’s demand performance. Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), fell 6.6 percent compared to April 2022 (-7.0 percent for international operations). This decline was an improvement over the previous month’s performance (-7.6 percent).
Download the IATA Air Cargo Market Analysis here.
Capacity (measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres, ACTK) was up 13.4 percent compared to April 2022. It was also up 3.2 percent compared to April 2019, marking the first time in three years that the capacity has surpassed pre-COVID levels. The strong uptick is primarily driven by belly capacity as demand in the passenger business recovers. Adjusting for this, freighter capacity declined 2.3 percent. Preighter operations ceased in March after 2.5 years of continuous activity.
Key factors influencing demand include:
- The global new export orders component of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a leading indicator of cargo demand, improved in April. China’s PMI level surpassed the critical 50-mark indicating that demand for manufactured goods from the world’s largest export economy is growing.
- Global goods trade increased by 0.2 percent in March, marking the first annual increase since November 2022.
- Consumer and producer prices increases have moderated. The April headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded rates of 5.0 percent in the US, 0.3 percent in China, and 3.5 percent in Japan. While Europe was higher (8.1 percent), it is well below its 11.5 percent October 2022 peak.
“The air cargo industry is adjusting itself to the implications of the recovery in passenger demand that brings with it an expansion of belly capacity. Preighter operations stopped in March and freighter services were scaled back by 2.3 percent in April. The demand environment is challenging to read. Tapering inflation is definitely a positive. But the degree and speed at which that could lead to looser monetary policies that might stimulate demand is unclear. The resilience that got the air cargo industry through the COVID-19 crisis is also critical in the aftermath,” said IATA’s Walsh.
April Regional Performance
- Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes decrease by 0.4 percent in April 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This was a significant improvement in performance compared to March (-6.8 percent). Available capacity in the region increased by 41.2 percent compared to April 2022 as more and more belly capacity came online from the passenger side of the business.
- North American carriers saw the weakest performance of all regions with a 13.1 percent decrease in cargo volumes in April 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This was a drop in performance compared to March (-10.2 percent). Notably, airlines in the region saw a significant decrease in international demand in April due to a substantial fall in volumes on two major trade lanes: North America-Europe (-13.5 percent) and North America-Asia (-9.3 percent). Capacity decreased 1.5 percent compared to April 2022.
- European carriers experienced an 8.2 percent decrease in cargo volumes in April 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This was a slight decline in performance compared to March (-7.4 percent). Airlines in the region saw a significant decrease in international demand due to double-digit contractions on the North America-Europe (-13.5 percent) trade lane, as well as within Europe (-16.1 percent). This was partially offset by strong demand on the Europe-Asia route (3.4 percent), which helped mitigate the overall decline in the region. Capacity increased 7.8 percent in April 2023 compared to April 2022.
- Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 6.8 percent year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in April 2023. This was a slight decline in performance compared to the previous month (-5.5 percent). Capacity increased 10.0 percent compared to April 2022.
- Latin American carriers reported a 1.6 percent decrease in cargo volumes in April 2023 compared to April 2022. This was an improvement in performance compared to March (-4.4 percent). Capacity in April was up 8.1 percent compared to the same month in 2022.
- African airlines had the only positive performance in April posting a 0.9 percent increase in demand compared to April 2022. This was an improvement in performance compared to the previous month (-4.3 percent). Notably, the Africa to Asia trade route experienced a significant increase in cargo demand in April, up 20.0 percent year-on-year. Capacity was 5.3 percent above April 2022 levels.
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