IATA: Marginal improvements in May travel demand; cargo rises above pre-COVID levels

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China has been shipping COVID-19 vaccines to Cambodia. (PHOTO: Cambodian Airports)

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that both international and domestic travel demand showed marginal improvements in May 2021, compared to the prior month, but traffic remained well below pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. Recovery in international traffic in particular continued to be stymied by extensive government travel restrictions. Because comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, unless otherwise noted all comparisons are to May 2019, which followed a normal demand pattern.

Total demand for air travel in May 2021 (measured in revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) was down 62.7 percent compared to May 2019. That was a gain over the 65.2 percent decline recorded in April 2021 versus April 2019. International passenger demand in May was 85.1 percent below May 2019, a small step-up from the 87.2 percent decline recorded in April 2021 versus two years ago. All regions with the exception of Asia-Pacific contributed to this modest improvement. Total domestic demand was down 23.9 percent versus pre-crisis levels (May 2019), slightly improved over April 2021, when domestic traffic was down 25.5 percent versus the 2019 period. China and Russia traffic continue to be in in positive growth territory compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, while India and Japan saw significant deterioration amid new variants and outbreaks.

IATA Director General William “Willie” Walsh, former CEO of IAG (PHOTO: Stuart Bailey)

“We are starting to see positive developments, with some international markets opening to vaccinated travellers. The Northern Hemisphere summer travel season is now fully arrived. And it is disappointing that more governments are not moving more rapidly to use data to drive border opening strategies that would help revive tourism jobs and reunite families,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “To paraphrase an old saying, when you think that all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Too many governments continue to act as if the only tool in their anti-COVID-19 arsenal is a blanket border closure or an arrival quarantine. In fact, research from leading medical organisations around the globe confirms that vaccinated travellers pose very little risk to the local population[i] while data show that pre-departure testing largely removes the risk of unvaccinated travellers importing COVID-19.

Download the IATA May Air Travel Update here.
Download the IATA May 2021 Market Analysis here.

“It is long past time for governments to start responding to this information with more nuanced data-driven risk-based strategies. These will minimise the chance of importing COVID-19 while allowing the world to reopen to travel and all the opportunities it brings to reconnect with loved ones, to realise business opportunities, to explore the world or take a well-deserved vacation,” said Walsh.

International Passenger Markets

  • European carriers’ May international traffic declined 84.7 percent versus May 2019, improved from the 87.7 percent decrease in April compared to the same month in 2019. Capacity dropped 75.7 percent and load factor fell 31.3 percentage points to 52.9 percent.
  • Asia-Pacific airlines saw their May international traffic fall 94.3 percent compared to May 2019, fractionally worse than the 94.2 percent drop registered in April 2021 versus April 2019. The region experienced the steepest traffic declines for a tenth consecutive month. Capacity was down 86.4 percent and the load factor sank 45.5 percentage points to 33.2 percent, the lowest among regions.
  • Middle Eastern airlines experienced an 81.3 percent demand drop in May compared to May 2019, slightly bettering the 82.9 percent decrease in April, versus the same month in 2019. Capacity declined 63.7 percent, and load factor fell 35.3 percentage points to 37.7 percent.
  • North American carriers’ May demand fell 74.4 percent compared to the 2019 period, an improvement over the 77.6 percent decline in April versus two years ago. Capacity sagged 58.5 percent, and load factor dropped 32.2 percentage points to 51.7 percent.
  • Latin American airlines saw a 75.1 percent demand drop in May, compared to the same month in 2019, notably improved over the 80.9 percent decline in April compared to April 2019. May capacity was down 69.9 percent and load factor decreased 14.6 percentage points to 69.5 percent, which was the highest load factor among the regions for the eighth consecutive month.
  • African airlines’ traffic fell 71.4 percent in May versus May two years ago, a gain from the 75.6 percent decline in April compared to April 2019. May capacity declined 61.8 percent versus May 2019, and load factor dropped 16.9 percentage points to 50.2 percent.

Domestic Passenger Markets

India’s domestic traffic fell 71.0 percent in May compared to May 2019 amid the emergence of the new and more contagious “Delta” variant. This compared to a 42 percent decline registered in April versus the same month two years ago.

Brazil’s domestic traffic rebounded from a 60.9 percent decline in April versus the same month in 2019, to a 44 percent decline in May, as travel restrictions were eased.

CARGO

IATA released May 2021 data for global air cargo markets showing that demand continued its strong growth trend. As comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, unless otherwise noted, all comparisons to follow are to May 2019 which followed a normal demand pattern. Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), was up 9.4 percent compared to May 2019. Seasonally adjusted demand rose by 0.4 percent month-on-month in May, the 13th consecutive month of improvement.

Download the IATA May 2021 Cargo Market Analysis here.

The pace of growth slowed slightly in May compared to April which saw demand increase 11.3 percent against pre-COVID-19 levels (April 2019). Notwithstanding, air cargo outperformed global goods trade for the fifth consecutive month. North American carriers contributed 4.6 percentage points to the 9.4 percent growth rate in May. Airlines in all other regions except for Latin America also supported the growth. Capacity remains constrained at 9.7 percent below pre-COVID-19 levels (May 2019) due to the ongoing grounding of passenger aircraft. Seasonally adjusted capacity rose 0.8 percent month-on-month in May, the fourth consecutive month of improvement indicating that the capacity crunch is slowly unwinding. The cost-competitiveness of air cargo relative to that of container shipping has improved.  Pre-crisis, the average price of air cargo was 12 times more expensive than sea shipping. In May 2021 it was six time more expensive.

“Propelled by strong economic growth in trade and manufacturing, demand for air cargo is 9.4 percent above pre-crisis levels. As economies unlock, we can expect a shift in consumption from goods to services. This could slow growth for cargo in general, but improved competitiveness compared to sea shipping should continue to make air cargo a bright spot for airlines while passenger demand struggles with continued border closures and travel restrictions,” said IATA’s Walsh.

May Regional Performance

covid-19-iata-says-world-faces-severe-cargo-crunch-as-virus-wreaks-havoc-globally
(PHOTO: Korean Air)
  • Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand for international air cargo increase 5.3 percent in May 2021 compared to the same month in 2019. This was a decrease compared to the previous month (5.9 percent) due to a slight slowdown in growth in several large trade routes such as Within Asia. International capacity remained constrained in the region, down 16.9 percent versus May 2019. As was the case in April, the region’s airlines reported the highest international load factor at 75.2 percent.
  • North American carriers posted a 25.5 percent increase in international demand in May 2021 compared to May 2019. This was on par with April’s performance (25.4 percent) and the strongest of all regions. Underlying economic conditions and favourable supply chain dynamics remain supportive for air cargo carriers in North America. International capacity grew by 1.6 percent compared with May 2019.
  • European carriers posted a 5.7 percent increase in demand in May 2021 compared to the same month in 2019. This was a decrease in performance compared to the previous month (11.5 percent) due to a slight slowdown in growth on key trade routes including Europe – Asia and Within Europe. International capacity decreased by 17.3 percent in May 2021 versus May 2019, remaining unchanged from the previous month.
  • Middle Eastern carriers posted a 14.1 percent rise in international cargo volumes in May 2021 versus May 2019. This was a slight decrease compared to the previous month (15.6 percent). Seasonally adjusted volumes remain on a robust upward trend. International capacity in May was down 6.1 percent compared to the same month in 2019, a robust improvement from the 10.1 percent drop in April.
  • Latin American carriers reported a decline of 14 percent in international cargo volumes in May compared to the 2019 period.  This was the worst performance of all regions, but a significant improvement compared to the previous month, which saw a 32.3 percent drop in demand. Seasonally adjusted demand also rose strongly in May. International capacity decreased 24.9 percent compared with May 2019, an improvement over the 52.3 percent decrease in April.
  • African airlines’ cargo demand in May increased 24.5 percent compared to the same month in 2019. This was a decrease in performance compared to the previous month (34.0 percent) due to a slowdown in trade flows between Africa and Asia. May international capacity increased by 0.5 percent compared to May 2019, remaining relatively unchanged from April.

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