Honeywell’s 31st annual Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasts up to 8,500 new commercial aircraft deliveries worth $274 billion from 2023 to 2032, representing a 15% increase in both deliveries and spending over the same 10-year forecast a year ago. This year, surveyed operators reported new aircraft purchase plans on par with 2019 levels, with fleet addition rates doubling from intentions reported last year. Feedback from respondents in this year’s survey aligns with industry reports of depleted business jet production lines for years to come.
“The commercial aviation industry is benefiting greatly from a wave of first-time users and buyers due in part to changing habits brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Honeywell Aerospace President Americas Aftermarket Patrick Heath. “The commercial aviation sector is expected to recover to 2019 delivery and spending levels by 2023, much sooner than previously anticipated. Demand for new commercial aircraft is as high as we have seen since 2015, and we expect high demand levels. and expenses for new aircraft for several more years.
Key findings in the 2022 Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook include:
- Deliveries of new commercial aircraft in 2023 are expected to be 17% higher than in 2022. Expenses are expected to be 20% higher.
- Five-year purchase plans for new business jets are up three percentage points from last year’s survey; this reaches 2019 levels and is equivalent to 17% of the current fleet.
- Fleet additions increase for the second consecutive year, doubling the rate of 2021 and exceeding 2% of the fleet.
- New aircraft deliveries and spending over the next decade are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2%, in line with expected long-term global economic growth.
- A third of those surveyed expect to fly more in 2023 than in 2022; 64% expect to fly at least as much and only 4% expect to fly less.
- Large and long-range aircraft classes are expected to account for more than 70% of all new commercial aircraft spending in the next five years.
- Only 2% of the operators surveyed plan to dispose of an aircraft without replacing it, which is half the rate obtained in 2021.
- Five-year purchase plans for used jets remain high, totalling 28% of the current fleet and on par with last year’s results. High demand for used jets will continue to put pressure on the already low inventory of jets available for sale.
The business aviation industry is benefiting from waves of first-time private aviation users and buyers, which is likely to be attributed to COVID-19. At times in 2022, flight activity reached levels not seen since 2007, which was the busiest year for commercial aviation. Concerns about exposure to pathogens and reduced first-class airline services helped drive recent growth in commercial and private aviation. Honeywell’s 2022 survey included first-time commercial aircraft owners making purchases since 2020 and operators who are capturing first-time private aviation users.
- Almost 74% of surveyed new private aviation users expect to maintain the same level of flight in 2023 as in 2022, which is 10 percentage points above the fleet-wide average. Only 4% expect to fly less in 2023.
- Nearly 85% of first-time users operate in the Americas.
- Within the Americas, 80% of first-time buyers operate in the United States; the rest operate mainly in Brazil.
- Business turboprops and small cabin jets each account for 35% of the fleet carrying these new users, followed by midsize jets (18%) and large long-range jets.
Honeywell is committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2035 across its operations and facilities and driving aviation sustainability with a wide range of turnkey solutions that will support a more sustainable future for the industry. This year’s survey features a section dedicated to operators’ current and future plans to reduce their carbon footprint during operations.
- Half of the operators surveyed this year report that they currently implement at least one method to reduce their carbon footprint, which is 30 percentage points higher than last year’s survey.
- The most frequently mentioned current method of reducing carbon footprint is “less or slower private jet travel” (20%), followed by “increasing passenger capacity” (17%).
- Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is the third most mentioned current method to reduce carbon footprint (14%); however, operators cite challenges with SAF availability.
- More than 60% of operators plan to adopt or increase methods for more environmentally friendly operations in the future, with 37% citing SAF as the most common way to achieve this goal.
- The survey asked the remaining 40% what would compel them to adopt some method to address sustainability in the future, and 57% of these operators mentioned economic incentives such as tax benefits or operating cost savings.
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