Bombardier Aerospace’s latest 20-year business aircraft market forecast, released on 14 June, predicts deliveries of some 24,000 business jets, valued at some US$650 billion, between 2013 and 2032. Growth will be driven by emerging markets, including Asia.
“As the business and commercial aircraft markets continue to recover from the industry downturn, signs of forward momentum are beginning to emerge,” the Canadian manufacturer says. “While demand for new aircraft orders will continue to come from established and developed markets, the growth potential in emerging markets such as China, India, Russia and Latin America is predicted to play an increasingly important role.”
With fuel prices and environmental concerns continuing to rise, operators will continue to focus on fleet optimisation and aircraft efficiency, the company adds.
“Bombardier is confident in the strong, long-term potential of the business aircraft industry,” the manufacturer says. The company anticipates 9,800 aircraft deliveries, worth US$269 billion at current list prices, up to 2022, with 14,200 more, valued at US$381 billion, from 2023 to 2032.
“While current macroeconomic indicators are mixed, the overall trend for the world economy is stable to positive,” the manufacturer says. “It is expected that as confidence returns to world markets, aircraft orders and backlogs will expand and deliveries will grow.”
Bombardier expects business jet orders and deliveries this year to be comparable to figures from 2012, with improvement expected in 2014, after which the industry could beat its 2008 delivery peak as early as 2016. With business jet demand shifting towards emerging markets, the global fleet of large- and medium-category aircraft will grow, with the fastest growth in the large-aircraft segment.
Bombardier predicts that the largest number of new business jets will be delivered in North America during the forecast period, followed by Europe, which will remain the second largest market despite its economic challenges.
China will probably become the third-largest market, with 1,000 deliveries from 2013 to 2022, and 1,420 deliveries from 2023 to 2032. Bombardier also expects key growth markets including Brazil, India, Russia/the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Mexico, and Turkey to receive a significant share of business jet deliveries over the next two decades.
Bombardier predicts that future challenges facing the business aviation sector will include rising fuel prices and tougher environmental regulations, which will also affect the company’s commercial aircraft business.