Boeing forecasts demand at US$5.9 trillion
US manufacturing stalwart Boeing announced at the Farnborough Airshow in England that it projects a global demand for 39,620 new airplanes over the next 20 years, an increase of 4.1 percent over last year’s forecast, saying those planes should be worth US$5.9 trillion.
“Despite recent events that have impacted the financial markets, the aviation sector will continue to see long-term growth with the commercial fleet doubling in size,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “We expect to see passenger traffic grow 4.8 percent a year over the next two decades.”
The single-aisle market will be especially strong, with low-cost carriers and emerging markets driving growth, Boeing said in its statement. At least 28,140 new airplanes will be needed in this segment, an increase of more than 5 percent over last year. On the widebody side, 9,100 airplanes are in the forecast, with a large wave of potential replacement demand in the 2021-2028 time frame. Boeing projects a continued shift from very large airplanes to small and medium widebodies.
Boeing also announced at the show that Xiamen Airlines and Boeing had signed a memorandum of understanding for the purchase of up to 30 737 MAX 200 airplanes, valued at up to US$3.39 billion at current list prices. The airline, which is already a 737 MAX customer, sees the MAX 200 as a fit for its low cost subsidiaries, including Jiangxi Airlines and Hebei Airlines.
Xiamen Airlines currently operates an all-Boeing fleet of more than 140 airplanes including six 787 Dreamliners, 130 Next-Generation 737s and four 757s. The carrier plans to grow its operational fleet to 200 airplanes by the end of the decade. Xiamen-based Xiamen Airlines is a stated-owned subsidiary of China Southern Airlines.
Boeing and Donghai Airlines also announced at the show the airline’s intent to buy 25 737 MAX 8s and five 787-9 Dreamliners at the 2016 Farnborough International Airshow. The agreement is valued at more than US$4 billion at current list prices. Shenzhen-based Donghai Airlines previously ordered 15 Next-Generation 737-800s and 10 737 MAX 8s in 2013.